Blogs2024-11-21T09:31:14+00:00

From ‘efficient’ to ‘resilient’ supply chains, and beyond

Global supply chains are in the midst of a fundamental paradigm shift. From the late 1970s to the 2000s, many countries embraced economic interdependence through trade liberalisation and promoted a free market economy with minimal government intervention. From the global financial crisis in 2008 to the Covid-19 pandemic (2020-2023), governments have been shifting towards a more managed approach to trade. This trend has become more pronounced, as the world’s power balance changes, due to the rise of China, emerging technologies impact security and economy, and the sustainable global agenda becomes important for the world’s future in the 21st century.

Highly industrialised economies, which previously focussed on liberalising trade through the WTO and through free trade agreements (FTAs), are shifting to more neo mercantilist approaches. They are pursuing resilient supply chain policies and measures to support climate change, national security concerns and other non-trade objectives (e.g. human rights). On top of that, ‘America first’ protectionism under the incoming US Trump administration will cast new challenges to its trade partners – including its resilient supply chain allies. What are the implications for trade policy of this paradigm shift from efficient supply chains to resilient chains and the return of US unilateralism?

Major economic powers […]

By , |18 December 2024|Categories: Blog, International Trade|Tags: , |0 Comments

The CPTPP does not prevent the UK from aligning its agri-food regulations with the EU.

One reason the UK Government wanted to join a trade agreement consisting of Pacific Rim countries, the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), was to prevent any current and future UK Governments, from undertaking regulatory alignment with the EU. As Lord Frost explained in 2021, ‘…. to do trade agreements with other countries [i.e. CPTPP] you need to have control of your own agri-food and SPS [Sanitary and Phytosanitary] rules”.

A UK-EU SPS agreement, which the Labour government has promised to pursue, would likely result in at least some alignment of regulation in SPS areas: human, animal and plant life and health. In these areas, the UK would lose some control over its rules. So, can the CPTPP prevent the UK from concluding an Agreement with the EU? We argue that it cannot.

New Zealand conclusively proves that it is indeed possible to be a CPTPP party and also have an EU veterinary agreement. Its EU veterinary agreement reduces the incidence of border checks in a few areas on animal products.

However, such a light agreement (New Zealand, which exports few products to the EU and from 18,000 kilometres away) would hardly resolve the border barriers facing UK […]

By , |17 December 2024|Categories: Blog, UK - Non EU, UK- EU|Tags: , , , |0 Comments

Surviving the General Product Safety Regulation: Challenges for small businesses

As the UK’s largest trading partner, any legislative changes to trade rules within the EU impact the UK’s trade with the EU. The EU General Product and Safety Regulations (GPSR), entering into force on December, is a case in point that will especially impact any small businesses conducting online sales.

The objective of this piece of legislation is to safeguard consumers in the EU against potentially dangerous products. By progressing from a Directive to a Regulation, the EU GPSR harmonises the product safety blueprint at an EU-wide level, to ensure consistency across all member states. In essence, the GPSR applies to any products placed on the EU market that have not already been regulated by existing EU harmonised legislation. The updated regulation is a significant revision of its predecessor, the EU General Product Safety Directive 2001/95/EC and builds on the Regulation (EU) 2019/1020 on Market Surveillance and Compliance of Products. While these rules have long applied to exports to the EU and Northern Ireland (under the Windsor Framework), the updated GPSR eliminates exceptions relating to the presence of an EU-based authorised representative. All small businesses selling online or through mail order must now have an Authorised Representative based in the EU […]

By , |13 December 2024|Categories: Blog, UK- EU|Tags: , , |0 Comments

How Trump affects UK Trade Policy

David Henig is the Director of the UK Trade Policy Project at the European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE). 

Just for a short time, all went quiet in the UK trade world. A Labour government meant the end of Conservative traumas over EU relations regularly resurfacing. President Biden didn’t do trade deals with anyone, and new UK Ministers made few swift decisions. Meanwhile, the EU reset has been more about smiles than substance.

To be fair, that wasn’t going to last. Though the secrecy instincts of Whitehall linger with a new government, there isn’t much point in a trade strategy shaped without extensive external input and some controversy over decisions. This will need to happen at some point (whether before or after publication) and is an inevitable consequence of choosing priorities.

Similarly, judging by ministerial visits, the only trade deal close to conclusion is with the Gulf Cooperation Council, which if agreed is likely to prove controversial, perhaps in terms of labour and environmental provisions, as well as making only a limited contribution to growth. Meanwhile, arguments over the level of ambition shown in the UK-EU reset are intensifying, as UK stakeholders advocating for ambition increasingly hear frustration from their contacts in […]

By |19 November 2024|Categories: Blog, UK - Non EU|0 Comments

Cutting back on geoeconomics: The EU Anti-Deforestation Law

Erika Szyszczak is a Professor Emerita and a Fellow of the UKTPO. Will Disney is a sustainability researcher and independent consultant.

The European Union is using trade measures to achieve a host of policies – climate change, human rights, labour standards – but for one policy area the EU has been hit by a global backlash. Voices within and outside of the EU are calling for a delay, and a re-appraisal, of its ground-breaking anti-deforestation Regulation which came into force on 29 June 2023. The EU has been forced to consider delaying the implementation of the Regulation by 12 months (until 30 December 2025) for large operators and traders. It has also been delayed for micro and small enterprises: until 30 June 2026.

The Regulation aims to promote ‘deforestation-free’ products and reduce the EU’s impact on global deforestation and forest degradation, as part of the action plan embracing the European Green Deal, the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 and the Farm to Fork Strategy. Firms trading in the EU have been preparing for the full implementation of the Regulation by exercising due diligence in their value chains. This has been done to ensure that any trading in cattle, cocoa, coffee, oil palm, rubber, soya and […]

By , |25 October 2024|Categories: UK- EU|0 Comments

Is the WTO really a Dead Parrot?

Peter Holmes is a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Emeritus Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex Business School.

The 2024 World Trade Organization (WTO) Public Forum was sure to be a fascinating occasion given the interest in the topic, inclusivity and green trade, and the stellar cast of speakers. But what of the future of the WTO itself? Many observers have come to feel that with the negotiating function and the Appellate Body (AB) both log-jammed, there wasn’t much for the WTO to do apart from hosting events like the Public Forum.

Despite the logjam in negotiations and the apparent death (certainly more than a very deep sleep) of the Appellate Body, the WTO is still delivering value to its members in its routine committee work. It continues to promote transparency etc, and Dispute Settlement Panels still operate, though more like the way they did in the GATT era. Among DS nerds there was sympathy for the idea put forward by Sunayana Sasmal and me[1] that concerns over judicial overreach could be assuaged if the AB (if there were one) could decline to rule if the law was genuinely unclear. But as several Indian experts told […]

By |4 October 2024|Categories: UK - Non EU|0 Comments

Do developing countries have a say? What the green subsidies race tells us about the future of geoeconomics.

Ana Peres is a Lecturer in Law at the University of Sussex and a member of the UKTPO.

Lawyers, economists and political scientists are increasingly using a new term to frame discussions on current trade relations and policies: geoeconomics. This means that countries are intervening in strategic economic sectors not primarily for profit but to ensure autonomy, build resilient supply chains and secure access to valuable capabilities. Such approach contrasts with the ideals of free trade, market access and interdependence that shaped international trade for decades. These traditional ideals, even when supported by a so-called ‘rules-based system’, always posed challenges for developing countries to meet their objectives. So, what does geoeconomics mean for developing countries? Unfortunately, it threatens to sideline them even more.

Consider one of the main areas where geoeconomic strategies are at play: the development of clean technologies. Governments are implementing industrial policies to secure access to critical raw materials, an input for electric batteries, and to protect domestic production of electric vehicles (EVs). Such policies often require substantial subsidies. Recent discussions at the WTO Public Forum highlighted that a clear distinction between “bad” and “good” subsidies is not only desirable but essential to deal with many of the new and […]

By |27 September 2024|Categories: UK - Non EU, UK- EU|0 Comments

Keir Starmer has several Brexit fixes he can try, and he shouldn’t let his ‘red lines’ get in the way.

Peter Holmes is a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Emeritus Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex Business School.

In recent weeks Sir Keir Starmer has visited Germany, France, Ireland and Italy, each in the name, he says, of turning a corner on Brexit, resetting the UK’s relationship with Europe and – most importantly – raising economic growth. The OBR estimates Brexit in its current form to be costing the UK a permanent non recoverable 4% of GDP pa.

So far, the PM’s visits to the EU have been good symbolism. Recent UK opinion polling shows increased public support for building back closer ties with the EU, reflecting that there are many in the UK, including a growing contingent of “Bregretters”, who would like to repair the economic and political damage done since 2016. On the European side the optics of welcome have been decently warm, although perhaps this is not so very surprising after almost ten years of dealing with EU-shy Conservative governments.

However, it is quite striking that, at the time of writing, Starmer has not yet made a visit to Brussels. He may be waiting for Ursula von der Leyen to launch her second term Commission. […]

By |23 September 2024|Categories: UK- EU|0 Comments

Too big to ignore, too unstable to support broader aims – the UK-EU relationship must change

Proflie photo of the authorDavid Henig is the Director of the UK Trade Policy Project at the European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE). 

The Conservatives seriously proposed a Brexit with no deals with the EU. Since the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) has been in place, the EU has said it can’t be reopened in any circumstance. Now Labour wants a reset but would prefer a quiet one that nobody really notices.

What is it about the world’s second-largest trade relationship[i] that means it is talked down consistently? Similarly, an integrated UK and EU is surely crucial for European competitiveness and security, so why does neither side see this?

Why the UK and EU need each other

Most obviously, this is the ongoing aftermath of a divorce so messy that both parties simply want to pretend everything is now fine for them. Except, geography means the relationship can’t just be ended, not to mention a billion euros of annual trade, which is rather a lot of customers dependent on governments to help them. Then there’s Northern Ireland, which has already been called the unwanted child […]

By |19 September 2024|Categories: UK- EU|0 Comments

Recent posts

Go to Top