About Alasdair Smith

This author has not yet filled in any details.
So far Alasdair Smith has created 3 blog entries.

Making Brexit work: An analysis of the Labour manifesto

18 June 2024Alasdair Smith is a UKTPO Research Fellow, a researcher within the Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy (CITP), Emeritus Professor of Economics and Former Vice-Chancellor at the University of Sussex. The 2019 General Election focused on the one issue of Brexit, and Boris Johnson’s victory enabled the UK to leave the EU. The evidence analysed by UKTPO and many others since then has confirmed the general expectation among expert economists at the time that Brexit would have negative economic effects. And recent  opinion poll evidence is that a majority of voters think Brexit was a mistake. To say that Brexit was a mistake does not imply it could or should be simply reversed. Yet, it is reasonable to expect the political parties to address the issue in their current election campaigns. The Labour Party’s ambition for the future EU-UK relationship is set out in two paragraphs in their manifesto published on 13 June: “With Labour, Britain will stay outside of the EU. But to seize the opportunities ahead, we must make Brexit work. We will reset the relationship and seek to deepen ties with our European friends, neighbours and allies. That does not mean reopening the divisions of the [...]

By |2025-01-15T12:00:22+00:0018 June 2024|Uncategorised|1 Comment

Briefing Paper 71 – IDENTIFYING SENSITIVE AND STRATEGIC SECTORS

Policy discussions about the effects and opportunities of international trade recognise that some parts of the economy might be more sensitive than others to changes in trade and/or trade policy, but the concept of a sensitive industry has different meanings. In our Briefing Paper, Identifying sensitive and strategic sectors, we aim to provide a conceptual framework for considering the factors that could identify industries that may be sensitive or strategic from a trade perspective; to review the range of information that can identify these factors; and to illustrate the ways in which this information can be usefully applied. Accompanying the Briefing Paper is a spreadsheet file with the underlying indicators and some tools of analysis which we hope will be of use and interest to some readers. The spreadsheet also includes detailed information about data sources and any data adjustments made. Read Briefing Paper 71: IDENTIFYING SENSITIVE AND STRATEGIC SECTORS

Briefing Paper 16 – WHICH MANUFACTURING SECTORS ARE MOST VULNERABLE TO BREXIT?

Trade in manufactures constitutes 65% of the UK’s trade with the EU and nearly 50% of the UK’s exports of manufactures go to the EU. In this new Briefing Paper, we look at the possible effects of Brexit on UK manufacturing in much greater sectoral detail than has been done before. For 122 manufacturing sectors, we estimate the exposure of these sectors to different versions of Brexit. Our projections depend on whether we assume the UK leaves the Customs Union and the Single Market, and on whether the UK makes a free trade agreement with the EU and is able to carry over existing free trade agreements with non-EU countries. In all cases, we find that introducing tariff and non-tariff barriers raises the prices that UK consumers and producers will face, and leads to reduced UK exports; but for some sectors, the increase in protection leads to higher UK output. The impact of Brexit is likely to be significantly different between high-tech and lower-tech sectors. Read Briefing Paper 16: Which Manufacturing Sectors Are Most Vulnerable to Brexit? Read the online Appendix and Appendix 2 – Simulation Results

Go to Top