About Alasdair Smith

This author has not yet filled in any details.
So far Alasdair Smith has created 16 blog entries.

What’s wrong with the USTR analysis of worldwide protection?

The analysis by the office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) that accompanies President Trump’s tariff announcement on 2 April is so profoundly wrong that one might (almost) feel sorry for the USTR staffers tasked with putting academic lipstick on a wayward pig. Their central argument is that one can measure how protectionist a country’s trade policies are by the size of its trade surplus in goods with the United States. Vietnam is judged to be highly protectionist because it exports to the USA much more than it imports. It is a relatively poor developing country with a competitive advantage in low-paying manufactures (such as clothing) which the US largely abandoned decades ago. It also has little appetite for the kinds of goods and services that the US exports. Vietnam’s trade with the US is not the result of protectionism. The EU, which retains a strong manufacturing sector in Germany, and has a significant surplus with the US, is judged to be more protectionist than the UK, whose competitive advantage is stronger in services. The reality is that despite Brexit, there is little difference between the trade policies of the UK and the EU. The USA runs a trade deficit [...]

By |2025-04-04T11:01:30+01:004 April 2025|Blog, International Trade|0 Comments
Read More

Making Brexit work: An analysis of the Labour manifesto

18 June 2024Alasdair Smith is a UKTPO Research Fellow, a researcher within the Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy (CITP), Emeritus Professor of Economics and Former Vice-Chancellor at the University of Sussex. The 2019 General Election focused on the one issue of Brexit, and Boris Johnson’s victory enabled the UK to leave the EU. The evidence analysed by UKTPO and many others since then has confirmed the general expectation among expert economists at the time that Brexit would have negative economic effects. And recent  opinion poll evidence is that a majority of voters think Brexit was a mistake. To say that Brexit was a mistake does not imply it could or should be simply reversed. Yet, it is reasonable to expect the political parties to address the issue in their current election campaigns. The Labour Party’s ambition for the future EU-UK relationship is set out in two paragraphs in their manifesto published on 13 June: “With Labour, Britain will stay outside of the EU. But to seize the opportunities ahead, we must make Brexit work. We will reset the relationship and seek to deepen ties with our European friends, neighbours and allies. That does not mean reopening the divisions of the [...]

By |2025-01-15T12:00:22+00:0018 June 2024|Uncategorised|2 Comments
Read More

Briefing Paper 71 – IDENTIFYING SENSITIVE AND STRATEGIC SECTORS

Policy discussions about the effects and opportunities of international trade recognise that some parts of the economy might be more sensitive than others to changes in trade and/or trade policy, but the concept of a sensitive industry has different meanings. In our Briefing Paper, Identifying sensitive and strategic sectors, we aim to provide a conceptual framework for considering the factors that could identify industries that may be sensitive or strategic from a trade perspective; to review the range of information that can identify these factors; and to illustrate the ways in which this information can be usefully applied. Accompanying the Briefing Paper is a spreadsheet file with the underlying indicators and some tools of analysis which we hope will be of use and interest to some readers. The spreadsheet also includes detailed information about data sources and any data adjustments made. Read Briefing Paper 71: IDENTIFYING SENSITIVE AND STRATEGIC SECTORS

By , , |2024-11-20T12:54:29+00:001 November 2022|Briefing Papers|0 Comments
Read More

Wasting time on the level playing field

17 December 2020 Alasdair Smith is Emeritus Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. If the UK leaves the EU transition period without a trade deal there will be disruption and delay at the borders in the short run; and in the longer run, there will be the economic costs of trade barriers for important parts of the UK economy like agriculture, food manufacturing and the car industry. There will be problems too for the EU. The biggest obstacle to a deal is the arcane issue of the ‘level playing field’. Does this really matter enough to both sides to prevent an agreement? […]

By |2025-07-18T10:14:23+01:0017 December 2020|UK- EU|2 Comments
Read More

The case for more flexibility in post-Brexit immigration rules

14 July 2020 Alasdair Smith is an Emeritus Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and is a member of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. There were no surprises in yesterday’s government announcement of the post-Brexit ‘points-based’  immigration rules (except for those who thought that a provision for health and care might actually cover social care workers). The government’s stated objectives are “flexibility and control over our borders”. However, an essential feature of the points-based scheme is that it is not actually operated at the border, but in the jobs market through the rules that non-UK employees must satisfy in order to take up a job offer in the UK. EU citizens will continue to have visa-free entry to the UK: the change for them is in their right to take up employment in the UK. (In all of this, Irish citizens are treated the same as UK citizens, and indeed EU citizens in Ireland can enter the UK without passport checks.) […]

By |2025-07-18T10:30:14+01:0014 July 2020|UK- EU|1 Comment
Read More

The grand illusion

17 October 2019 Alasdair Smith is an Emeritus Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and is a member of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. Most of us may not yet have found the time to read and absorb the text of the new Brexit withdrawal agreement, but we can read the texts which “a Number 10 source”, whom we non-journalists are allowed to call Dominic Cummings, has sent to journalists. These texts deserve critical scrutiny. […]

By |2025-07-18T11:05:29+01:0017 October 2019|UK- EU|3 Comments
Read More

Johnson’s alternative to the backstop would be just as ‘undemocratic’

27 August 2019 Alasdair Smith is an Emeritus Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and is a member of the UK Trade Policy Observatory The adjective ‘undemocratic’ has for a few weeks now been mysteriously attached to the Ireland backstop provision in the Withdrawal Agreement. The prime minister’s letter of August 19th to Donald Tusk, president of the EU Council, at least explained why: the backstop is said to be undemocratic because it binds the UK after Brexit into EU trade and regulatory policies in which it will have no say. This is not a new idea. From early on in the Brexit debates, many economists assumed there would be compelling economic incentives for a post-Brexit UK to remain in the European Economic Area (EEA). Alan Winters pointed out that this would mean the UK would have to pay (financial contributions to the EU) and obey (EU rules) but with no say (in setting the rules). The Irish backstop is not the same as the EEA, but ‘obey with no say’ is the ‘undemocratic’ objection. The prime minister’s solution is that the backstop should be replaced by alternative arrangements for the Irish border which would allow the UK to [...]

By |2025-07-18T11:12:29+01:0028 August 2019|UK- EU|1 Comment
Read More

Why we need a referendum to ratify Brexit

11 February 2019 Alasdair Smith is an Emeritus Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and is a member of the UK Trade Policy Observatory Parliamentary discussions on Brexit seem to be making no progress towards a decision that can command a majority and the timetable for future Parliamentary votes is uncertain. The only result of last week’s discussion in Brussels was an agreement to hold further talks later this month, a jaw-droppingly relaxed timetable in the circumstances. The Labour Party leadership has produced a statement with two objectives both of which are probably unattainable: a customs union with the EU in which the UK has a significant voice in the setting of EU trade policy, and a close relationship with the single market that falls short of membership. The Conservative Party is having internal discussions (with civil service support, a constitutional innovation) about the Malthouse Compromise, whose oxymoronic objectives are a new backstop that is not a backstop or an agreed withdrawal without a withdrawal agreement. Out of this unpromising material, however, some outcome must emerge before March 29. […]

By |2025-07-18T12:05:37+01:0011 February 2019|UK- EU|1 Comment
Read More

What’s the deal?

16 November 2018 Alasdair Smith is an Emeritus Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and is a member of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. The UK Cabinet has signed off the draft EU Withdrawal Agreement (WA) and the Political Declaration (PD) about the future UK-EU trade relationship. The WA has had such a rocky reception in the Conservative Party that the future path of decision-making is a bit uncertain, but it is likely that these documents will also be agreed by the EU summit later this month. The decision-making then passes one way or another to the UK Parliament. Politics has dominated this week’s debates, but decisions need to be informed by economic assessment. Let’s consider the economic costs and benefits of the choices which Parliament will have to make. […]

By |2025-07-18T13:40:13+01:0016 November 2018|UK- EU|2 Comments
Read More

How can the UK persuade the EU to accept an all-UK backstop?

11 June 2018 Alasdair Smith is an Emeritus Professor of Economics and Dr Peter Holmes is Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex. They are both Fellows of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. On June 7, after prolonged internal discussion, the UK government published its paper proposing the extension to the whole UK of the ‘backstop’ provision in the EU draft withdrawal agreement to incorporate Northern Ireland (NI) into the EU’s customs territory until another solution can be found for the problem of the Irish border. The UK is unenthusiastic about the backstop and hopes it will not be needed, but wants any backstop to cover the whole UK, so as to avoid the need for border inspections of trade between NI and the rest of the UK (GB). Perhaps surprisingly, the government paper does not address the fact that the EU’s proposal is for NI to be included in a ‘common regulatory area’ as well as in a de facto customs union: any backstop needs to deal with regulation as well as customs. […]

By , |2025-07-18T13:48:33+01:0011 June 2018|UK- EU|11 Comments
Read More

Our home

University of Sussex Logo

© 2024 UK Trade Policy Observatory

Site by: Phipps Design

Go to Top