About Michael Gasiorek

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So far Michael Gasiorek has created 29 blog entries.

How much damage could Trump’s tariffs do and what can be done?

The short answer to the first part of the question is: “a lot” - and the damage is likely to be both globally and to the US itself. A longer answer is that, in many respects, we do not really know. This is because it is unclear why these US policies are being introduced, whether they may be reversed, and what other policies may be introduced or threatened both by the US as well as by other countries. The short answer to the second part of the question is “not much”. However, a the longer answer would be: it is horribly complicated with so many unknowns, but governments and businesses need to think long term, cooperate and be proactive as opposed to reactive. This is not easy. At present the policies being introduced against other countries largely amount to threatening to introduce or raise tariffs on goods. If we therefore focus on goods trade in 2023, the United States accounted for just under 14.5% of world imports, and just over 8% of world exports. This means that out of the total world demand for goods being exported, the US buys one-seventh of these and supplies roughly one-twelfth of world exports. [...]

By |2025-02-03T17:20:17+00:003 February 2025|Blog, International Trade|0 Comments
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Trump’s tariffs: How much should we be concerned and why?

With President Donald Trump’s second term, the debate over the use of tariffs is making headlines. On his first day in office Trump once again raised the prospect of the strategic use of these tariffs: he threatened to impose them unless partner countries (Mexico, Canada or the EU) introduced changes in their trade policies or made concessions in other domains (China with TikTok). This approach is likely to have profound implications for both the US as well as on the global economy for three key reasons. First, it will impact the already strained multilateral trading system. Second, there are direct consequences of US tariffs on individual partner countries. Third, there is the question of how effective such actions will be for the US, and that will also depend on the extent of any retaliatory measures. The UK-U.S. Trade Relationship Trump has threatened to impose sweeping tariffs—ranging from 10% to 20% on all trading partners, and up to 60% on Chinese imports. These statements clearly cover a multitude of possibilities, and this generates considerable uncertainty. The UK government appears hopeful that as the US does not have a trade deficit with the UK, that the UK may not be targeted. However, [...]

By , |2025-02-03T17:18:22+00:0024 January 2025|Blog, International Trade|0 Comments
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Briefing Paper 81 – LABOUR’S PROGRESSIVE TRADE POLICY: CONSULTATIONS AND POLICY FORMULATION

In this Briefing Paper, Michael Gasiorek, Justyna A. Robinson, Rhys Sandow assess the views expressed by those who responded to the Labour Party’s 2023 national consultation on UK trade policy. Read Briefing Paper 81 –LABOUR’S PROGRESSIVE TRADE POLICY: CONSULTATIONS AND POLICY FORMULATION

By , , |2024-11-20T12:40:50+00:001 July 2024|Briefing Papers|0 Comments
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Why discussion of Trade Policy matters in the General Election

30 May 2024 - Ingo Borchert is Deputy Director of the UKTPO, a Member of the Leadership Group of the Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy (CITP) and a Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex. Michael Gasiorek is Co-Director of the UKTPO, Co-Director of the CITP and Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex. Emily Lydgate is Co-Director of the UKTPO and Professor of Environmental Law at the University of Sussex. L. Alan Winters is Co-Director of the CITP and former Director of the UKTPO. A general election is underway, and the parties are making various promises and commitments to attract voters, and both the main parties – the Conservatives and Labour – are keen to persuade the country that they have a credible plan. Now it might just be that the authors of this piece are trade nerds, but one key aspect of economic policy has not yet been clearly articulated, or even mentioned – and that is international trade policy. In our view, this is a mistake. As a hugely successful open economy, international trade constitutes a significant share of economic activity, supports over 6 million jobs in the UK, spurs innovation, and enhances consumption choices. [...]

By , , , |2025-01-15T12:06:48+00:0030 May 2024|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|6 Comments
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Briefing Paper 80 – REGULATORY INTENSITY AND THE EU SINGLE MARKET: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UK

In this Briefing Paper, Ruby Acquah, Mattia Di Ubaldo, Michael Gasiorek introduce a set of new indices that capture the regulatory obligations for products exported to the EU’s Single Market, and provide a background discussion of product regulations and directives and their impact on international trade. Read Briefing paper 80: REGULATORY INTENSITY AND THE EU SINGLE MARKET: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UK.

By , , |2024-11-20T12:41:31+00:001 May 2024|Briefing Papers|0 Comments
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Some goods (and some less good) news from UK trade

16 February 2024 Michael Gasiorek is Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Co-Director of the Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy. He is Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex Business School. Nicolo Tamberi is Research Fellow in Economics at the University of Sussex and Fellow of UKTPO. HMRC has just published statistics for trade in goods for December 2023, giving us three years of data after the implementation of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) with the EU in 2021. This blog reviews trends in UK trade with the world and the effects of the TCA on UK-EU trade. There is good and bad news for UK trade in goods. Starting with the bitter pill, the UK’s trade in goods with the world has underperformed compared to other comparable countries over the last few years. Figure 1 shows the exports (panel a) and imports (panel b) of the UK, marked in red, and other OECD countries in blue, together with the series for the OECD total in dark blue. While during the period 2013-16, the UK was in line with the OECD total, the UK’s imports and exports started to slow down since the Brexit referendum in June [...]

By , |2024-12-17T14:42:14+00:0015 February 2024|Blog, UK - Non EU|2 Comments
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What can be learnt from the Labour Party’s consultation on Trade?

Michael Gasiorek is Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Co-Director of the Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy. He is Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex Business School. Justyna A. Robinson is a Reader in English Language and Linguistics at the University of Sussex and a Director of Concept Analytics Lab. In early 2023, the Labour Party launched a National Policy Forum. It comprised a series of public consultations across six core policy areas, with the stated aim of helping the Labour Party to ‘build their policy platform’.  A key part of the consultation process was to invite written submissions on these policy areas. One of the six policy areas was entitled Britain in the World, (to which the UKTPO/CITP also responded), which posed a set of seven questions all of which related to trade and trade policy. Questions 1. What is the role of international trade in promoting domestic economic growth, boosting jobs and driving up wages? 2. How can Labour ensure the UK’s international trade policy promotes growth and investment across the nations and regions of the UK? 3. How can Labour build resilience into the international trade system and better ensure the security of essential supply chains? 4. How will a Labour government’s trade policy reduce poverty and global inequality whilst promoting (a) human rights, [...]

By , |2025-01-29T15:24:54+00:006 October 2023|Blog, UK- EU|2 Comments
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Driving round the bend: Rules of origin and cars

8 June 2023 Michael Gasiorek is Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Co-Director of the Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy. He is Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex Business School. Peter Holmes is a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Emeritus Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex Business School. Manuel Tong Koecklin is a Research Fellow in the Economics of Trade at the UK Trade Policy Observatory and University of Sussex Business School. Recently, there have been a series of reports in the media focussing on the challenges that electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers are likely to face, from the end of this year, in exporting electric vehicles tariff-free to the EU. The concern it because of the changes in the rules of origin (ROOs) requirements (for EVs and batteries) which will become more difficult from January 2024, and again from 2027 and 2028 onwards. […]

By , , |2025-01-29T15:27:05+00:008 June 2023|UK- EU|1 Comment
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Rules of origin do matter after all!

19 May 2023 Michael Gasiorek is Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Co-Director of the Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy. He is Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex Business School. Nicolo Tamberi is Research Officer in Economics at the University of Sussex and Fellow of UKTPO. Earlier this week Vauxhall announced it may withdraw from producing electric vehicles in the UK owing to difficulties from meeting ‘rules of origin’ on EU exports. The car manufacturer called for a revision to the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) between the EU and then UK, notably regarding rules of origin (ROOs). Ford and Jaguar Land-Rover have also warned of the difficulties and called for a revision to the TCA and German producers have also expressed concerns about the meeting these ROOs. […]

By , |2025-01-29T15:30:36+00:0019 May 2023|Blog, UK- EU|1 Comment
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