In this Briefing Paper, Adriana Brenis, Michael Gasiorek and Manuel Tong Koecklin ask how much free trade is there in UK Free Trade Agreements and what potential factors prevent that trade from being fully free. Read Briefing Paper 83 - HOW MUCH FREE TRADE IN UK FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS?
In this Briefing Paper, Michael Gasiorek, Justyna A. Robinson, Rhys Sandow assess the views expressed by those who responded to the Labour Party’s 2023 national consultation on UK trade policy. Read Briefing Paper 81 –LABOUR’S PROGRESSIVE TRADE POLICY: CONSULTATIONS AND POLICY FORMULATION
30 May 2024 - Ingo Borchert is Deputy Director of the UKTPO, a Member of the Leadership Group of the Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy (CITP) and a Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex. Michael Gasiorek is Co-Director of the UKTPO, Co-Director of the CITP and Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex. Emily Lydgate is Co-Director of the UKTPO and Professor of Environmental Law at the University of Sussex. L. Alan Winters is Co-Director of the CITP and former Director of the UKTPO. A general election is underway, and the parties are making various promises and commitments to attract voters, and both the main parties – the Conservatives and Labour – are keen to persuade the country that they have a credible plan. Now it might just be that the authors of this piece are trade nerds, but one key aspect of economic policy has not yet been clearly articulated, or even mentioned – and that is international trade policy. In our view, this is a mistake. As a hugely successful open economy, international trade constitutes a significant share of economic activity, supports over 6 million jobs in the UK, spurs innovation, and enhances consumption choices. [...]
In this Briefing Paper, Ruby Acquah, Mattia Di Ubaldo, Michael Gasiorek introduce a set of new indices that capture the regulatory obligations for products exported to the EU’s Single Market, and provide a background discussion of product regulations and directives and their impact on international trade. Read Briefing paper 80: REGULATORY INTENSITY AND THE EU SINGLE MARKET: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UK.
16 February 2024 Michael Gasiorek is Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Co-Director of the Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy. He is Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex Business School. Nicolo Tamberi is Research Fellow in Economics at the University of Sussex and Fellow of UKTPO. HMRC has just published statistics for trade in goods for December 2023, giving us three years of data after the implementation of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) with the EU in 2021. This blog reviews trends in UK trade with the world and the effects of the TCA on UK-EU trade. There is good and bad news for UK trade in goods. Starting with the bitter pill, the UK’s trade in goods with the world has underperformed compared to other comparable countries over the last few years. Figure 1 shows the exports (panel a) and imports (panel b) of the UK, marked in red, and other OECD countries in blue, together with the series for the OECD total in dark blue. While during the period 2013-16, the UK was in line with the OECD total, the UK’s imports and exports started to slow down since the Brexit referendum in June [...]
New analysis presented in our Briefing Paper, The challenges facing UK firms: Trade and supply chains reveals that UK businesses are struggling with increased costs, labour and skill issues and supply shortages following the UK’s departure from the European Union. The authors of the Briefing Paper analysed over 2,800 responses to three surveys issued by the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), to help produce a long-term perspective on the challenges facing UK businesses. They examine the main challenges and opportunities reported by businesses over 2021 and 2022 and two specific trade-related areas. The first is on the difficulties and advantages for businesses arising from the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). The second is on supply chain challenges. The results show that as a result of the TCA, UK businesses are reporting significant difficulties and disadvantages, including increased red tape, bureaucracy and costs as well as shipping and transport issues. Such increases inevitably lead to both shortages of products and rises in prices for the UK public. Read Briefing Paper 73: THE CHALLENGES FACING UK FIRMS: TRADE AND SUPPLY CHAINS
Policy discussions about the effects and opportunities of international trade recognise that some parts of the economy might be more sensitive than others to changes in trade and/or trade policy, but the concept of a sensitive industry has different meanings. In our Briefing Paper, Identifying sensitive and strategic sectors, we aim to provide a conceptual framework for considering the factors that could identify industries that may be sensitive or strategic from a trade perspective; to review the range of information that can identify these factors; and to illustrate the ways in which this information can be usefully applied. Accompanying the Briefing Paper is a spreadsheet file with the underlying indicators and some tools of analysis which we hope will be of use and interest to some readers. The spreadsheet also includes detailed information about data sources and any data adjustments made. Read Briefing Paper 71: IDENTIFYING SENSITIVE AND STRATEGIC SECTORS
Despite the positive narrative around the growth in global supply chains, we currently see considerable discussion and growing concern over the issue of ‘supply chain resilience’. This Briefing Paper analyses the rationale behind greater supply chain resilience and sustainability and the policies being used to address vulnerability in certain supply chains. The author finds that policy responses do not always concern supply chain resilience and in many cases they may have been designed more to protect domestic producers. To negate the risk that supply chain resilience is used as a get-out clause for a wide range of industrial policy interventions. This Briefing Paper suggests a taxonomy for understanding different possible legitimate reasons for being concerned about supply chains and provides ten ways more international coordination could be achieved. Read Briefing Paper 67: Supply Chain Resilience: The dangers of ‘pick n mix’
This Briefing Paper aims to further understanding of the importance of trade in services for the UK economy. In particular, to shed light on the relationship between services and manufacturing trade, including an increasingly significant form of services trade known as Mode 5. We explore input-output data, firm-level data and the links between services and manufacturing in the context of the UK’s independent trade policy. The authors provide evidence that shows that the nature of how these services interact with goods trade and the policy or market access barriers and their implications need to be understood in much greater detail for policy purposes. Read Briefing Paper 66: Links between services and manufacturing trade in the UK: Mode 5 and beyond
The idea of introducing a Border Carbon Adjustment has been raised by various countries and major trading partners of the UK, most notably the EU, with its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. This Briefing Paper seeks to address the possible implications of a border carbon adjustment mechanism for the UK. We examine the potential impact on specific industries and consider implications of cooperation with the EU on ETS schemes and BCAs, the pros and cons to the UK of applying such a new type of policy tool and for maintaining trade, investment and job stability in the UK, and with trading partners, and the extent to which it might counter the problem of carbon leakage. Read Briefing Paper 64: UK POLICY ON CARBON LEAKAGE
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