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So far Nick Phipps has created 249 blog entries.

New UKTPO report outlines impact of Brexit Withdrawal Agreement on Welsh economy

20 January 2020 The Welsh Government has published an independent report completed by the UK Trade Policy Observatory analysing the potential implications for Wales’ external trade as a result of the protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland, as set out in the Withdrawal Agreement. The UKTPO analysis identifies issues that may impinge directly or indirectly on the Welsh economy as a result of the adoption of the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland as part of the Withdrawal Agreement and subsequent Bill. […]

By |2020-01-20T16:03:37+00:0020 January 2020|Uncategorised|0 Comments
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Determining goods at risk

14 January 2020 Dr Anna Jerzewska is a independent customs and trade consultant, an independent advisor with the UN International Trade Centre and also a trade policy and customs consultant for the British Chambers of Commerce. The UK is due to leave the EU on the 31st January 2020. A new stage of the Brexit process is set to begin – the transition period and negotiations of the future relationship with the EU. At the same time, work on the Northern Irish border arrangements is far from over. A newly established Joint Committee will negotiate the practicalities of implementing the Withdrawal Agreement. Under the Withdrawal Agreement (“WA”), Northern Ireland would stay in the UK’s customs territory but would at the same time continue applying EU’s customs legislation, tariffs, quotas and, partially, EU Single Market rules. This will avoid a border on the island of Ireland but will mean a de facto customs and regulatory border in the Irish Sea. As a result of this dual status, goods shipped from Great Britain (“GB”) to Northern Ireland (“NI”) will be subject to EU tariffs if they are “at risk of subsequently being moved into the Union, whether by itself or forming part [...]

By |2020-01-14T09:55:38+00:0014 January 2020|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|0 Comments
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How much is a Free Trade Agreement with the US worth to the UK economy?

12 December 2019 Michael Gasiorek is Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. Nicolo Tamberi is a Research Assistant in Economics for the UK Trade Policy Observatory.  Following Brexit, and assuming the UK is no longer part of a customs union with the EU, the UK will be able to sign free trade agreements (FTAs) with third countries. Indeed, the Conservative manifesto aims to have 80% of UK trade covered by FTAs within three years. This is clearly unrealistic, because it would require signing agreements with more than 12 countries within a time-scale which has rarely been achieved for a single agreement.  The objective, however,  highlights that, post-Brexit, there will be a lot of focus on trying to sign FTAs. Other than the somewhat significant matter of signing an agreement with the EU, top of the UK’s FTA wish list is an agreement with the US. […]

By |2019-12-12T12:20:18+00:0012 December 2019|Uncategorised|6 Comments
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EU tariffs could cover 75% of imports of goods into Northern Ireland

9 December 2019 L. Alan Winters CB is Professor of Economics and Director of the Observatory. Our analysis finds that under the UK-EU Protocol on Northern Ireland, about 75% of Northern Ireland’s imports of goods from other locations, including Great Britain, would be subject to EU tariffs on their arrival in Northern Ireland. This is not easily reconciled with the government’s assertion that Northern Ireland remains within the UK customs territory. […]

By |2019-12-09T09:09:13+00:009 December 2019|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|5 Comments
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Get Brexit done: An oven-ready Brexit?

4 December 2019 L. Alan Winters CB is Professor of Economics and Director of the Observatory. The Prime Minister seems to think that an ‘oven-ready’ Brexit deal is the best that we can choose from the menu of policy alternatives. It sounds neither appetising nor nourishing, but if it really were quick and easy, maybe it would be worth it. But it’s not quick or easy: ‘oven-ready’ is just not true. […]

By |2019-12-04T13:21:18+00:004 December 2019|UK- EU|2 Comments
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Border posts at Gretna Green? Loosening food safety legislation could put Union under serious strain

5 November 2019 Border posts could be required at Gretna Green and the Severn Bridge in response to widening regional standards in food safety that could open up after Brexit, our new Briefing Paper warns. Our analysis warns of the potential for very different regulatory approaches between the UK Government and devolved authorities towards controversial food practices including chlorinated chicken, GM crops and pesticides. The existence of such discrepancies would likely have a significant and detrimental impact on the UK’s ability to strike trade deals, analysis by Dr Emily Lydgate, Chloe Anthony and Prof Erik Millstone has warned. […]

By |2019-11-05T10:02:11+00:005 November 2019|UK- EU|3 Comments
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Better than the status quo for Northern Ireland? Not quite so simple

24 October 2019 Michael Gasiorek is Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory.  There has been some discussion that the unique arrangements outlined in the Protocol on Northern Ireland within the Withdrawal Agreement between the UK and the EU mean that Northern Ireland may get the best of both worlds – tariff-free access to both the EU Single Market and the UK market. This is because Northern Ireland will remain in the UK’s customs territory, however, for trade between Northern Ireland and the EU (and therefore the Republic of Ireland) the EU’s Union Customs Code will apply, with no tariffs or other restrictions. Northern Ireland will also remain within the EU’s single market for agriculture and manufactured goods. The aim of this blog is to think through this carefully. […]

By |2019-10-24T16:56:46+01:0024 October 2019|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|4 Comments
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The grand illusion

17 October 2019 Alasdair Smith is an Emeritus Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and is a member of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. Most of us may not yet have found the time to read and absorb the text of the new Brexit withdrawal agreement, but we can read the texts which “a Number 10 source”, whom we non-journalists are allowed to call Dominic Cummings, has sent to journalists. These texts deserve critical scrutiny. […]

By |2019-10-17T16:06:46+01:0017 October 2019|UK- EU|3 Comments
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The UK’s ‘No Deal’ Tariffs: An Update

16 October 2019 Julia Magntorn Garrett is a Research Officer in Economics at the University of Sussex and Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory.  In March 2019, Theresa May’s Government published a set of ‘No deal’ tariffs, designed to apply for up to 12 months in the event that the UK left the EU without a deal. The UKTPO described them in a blog and a Briefing Paper. On October 8, the new Government published an updated ‘No deal’ tariff schedule. This blog outlines the main changes, and recalculates various statistics, on the basis of the new tariff proposal. […]

By |2019-10-16T11:05:01+01:0016 October 2019|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|0 Comments
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