About Peter Holmes

Peter Holmes is a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Emeritus Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex Business School.

Briefing Paper 28 – WHAT IS THE EXTRA MILEAGE IN THE REINTRODUCTION OF ‘FREE ZONES’ IN THE UK?

Since the EU referendum, there has been a growing interest in the reintroduction of free zones in the United Kingdom. Those advocating free zones believe that they will help to boost British trade after Brexit and promote economic growth. This briefing paper presents a history of free zones in the UK and US and then looks at the EU context. Although there are potential benefits and savings that businesses can accrue from simplified customs procedures and relief on customs duties and tariff inversion, the authors explain that such benefits will be very limited in the UK context. This is due to state aid rules which limit the scale of assistance possible. The UK would still be affected by these in some way post-Brexit. Thus, while there is a scope for free zones shaping an export-oriented place-based regional development programme, policymakers should devise measures that counteract possible diversion of economic activity from elsewhere, and offer a wider set of incentives than just free zones, while keeping within our WTO and any ‘level playing field’ obligations that arise from our trade agreements. Read Briefing Paper 28 – What is the extra mileage in the reintroduction of ‘free zones’ in the UK?  

By , |2024-11-20T13:21:46+00:001 February 2019|Briefing Papers|0 Comments

Briefing Paper 27 – EQUIVALENCE, MUTUAL RECOGNITION IN FINANCIAL SERVICES AND THE UK NEGOTIATING POSITION

This briefing paper explores the likely content of a market access agreement for financial services between the UK and the EU. Despite the UK Government’s early hopes that all trade issues could have been settled in the Withdrawal Agreement, the actual situation is that this Agreement addresses only those trade issues necessary to ensure an open Irish Border.  The accompanying Political Declaration on the future relationship between the UK and the EU lays out some broad non-binding principles on which negotiations around financial services access are intended to proceed during the transition period, but important details are undefined. During the negotiation of the Political Declaration itself, some counter-briefing took place as to the meaning of some of these principles. The existence of such counter-briefing suggests that when these negotiations commence, the rules of access for UK financial services will again be a contentious issue. This paper uses what we know now to analyse the options that may emerge and the likelihood of their adoption. Read Briefing Paper 27 – EQUIVALENCE, MUTUAL RECOGNITION IN FINANCIAL SERVICES AND THE UK NEGOTIATING POSITION

Briefing Paper 20 – THE FUTURE OF US-UK TRADE: WHAT CASE FOR A BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENT?

Both US President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Theresa May have stated their keenness to negotiate and agree the groundwork for a bilateral trade agreement after Brexit. This briefing paper looks at what the key issues are likely to be and what a transatlantic agreement may, or may not, comprise. First, we explore the extent to which a trade agreement between the US and the UK would have popular support at a time when debate about trade on both sides of the Atlantic is contested. Second, we consider what the benefits of such an agreement might be by considering the aggregate economic case. Finally, we probe where problems and tensions may lie, focusing primarily on the regulatory aspects of a transatlantic commercial tie-up. Read Briefing Paper 20 – The Future of US-UK Trade: What case for a bilateral trade agreement?

Briefing Paper 15 – CERTIFICATES AND RULES OF ORIGIN: THE EXPERIENCE OF UK FIRMS

Rules of Origin (RoOs) are used by importing Customs authorities in the international trading system to determine if a product is considered as sufficiently linked to the exporting country to count as originating there, in order apply preferential or MFN (Most Favoured Nation) rates of tariff to the goods, and to check for quota, anti-dumping and related compliance. The importance of RoOs is due to the fact that duties and restrictions in many cases depend upon the source of imports. Proving origin will be a far bigger issue than it is now for UK business exporting to the EU after Brexit. With all businesses likely to have to rethink their compliance with Rules of Origin post-Brexit, this paper, based on a study carried out with the support of the British Chambers of Commerce, outlines the current Certificates of Origin regime and the options for change after Brexit. Read Briefing Paper 15- CERTIFICATES AND RULES OF ORIGIN: THE EXPERIENCE OF UK FIRMS and the Online Appendix

By , |2024-11-20T13:29:33+00:002 January 2018|Briefing Papers|0 Comments

Briefing Paper 13 – GRANDFATHERING: WHAT APPEARS BILATERAL IS TRILATERAL

Rolling over the 37 Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with more than 60 countries that the UK currently has through the EU will be a monumentally complicated task and one that needs to be completed by March 2019. This Briefing Paper outlines why it may not be easy to get agreement on grandfathering with the FTA partner countries, and why even if agreement could be reached it is unlikely that trade will continue on the same basis as previously. A key point which emerges is that with regard to several key issues – Rules of Origin (RoOs), Most Favoured Nation (MFN) clauses, mutual recognition, and tariff-rate quotas – grandfathering the agreements is unlikely to happen without some engagement or negotiation with the EU. Hence what you might think is a bilateral issue between the UK and a given FTA partner, becomes a trilateral issue which also involves the EU. Read Briefing Paper 13 – GRANDFATHERING: WHAT APPEARS BILATERAL IS TRILATERAL

By , |2024-11-20T13:31:19+00:001 December 2017|Briefing Papers|0 Comments

Briefing Paper 12 – TRADE AND CONSUMERS AFTER BREXIT

Consumers face many challenges post-Brexit. The new UK Trade White Paper published by the Department for International Trade in October 2017 has stated that it will give a major priority to consumers, but details remain to be spelled out. Increasing scepticism about free trade puts at risk the classic gains from trade – lower prices and better choice – and gives rise to fears of job losses from increased imports. On the other hand, some fear that Brexit – and potential trade agreements with third countries – will weaken or undermine consumer protection. In the addition to these substantive issues there are procedural questions too – how is consumer interest represented? This briefing paper addresses these issues of trade policy and consumer interests. Read Briefing Paper 12 – TRADE AND CONSUMERS AFTER BREXIT  

By |2024-11-20T13:31:38+00:003 November 2017|Briefing Papers|0 Comments

Briefing Paper 5 – UK-EU TRADE RELATIONS POST BREXIT: TOO MANY RED LINES?

This briefing paper provides an evaluation of the feasibility of different options for post-Brexit trade relations. With the EU accounting for close to 50% of the UK’s imports and exports of goods and services, the focus in this paper is on the UK’s future trading relations with the EU itself. Whilst all of the options listed in this paper are problematic, the aim is to examine the limitations of what may be feasible and – in so doing – to suggest a way, or ways, forward. Given that the UK’s objectives take the form of seeking to impose certain constraints on the post-Brexit outcome, we look at the extent to which each option is consistent with these ‘red lines’. Read Briefing Paper 5 – UK-EU TRADE RELATIONS POST BREXIT: TOO MANY RED LINES?

By , , |2024-11-20T13:35:38+00:001 November 2016|Briefing Papers|0 Comments

Briefing Paper 3 – ROOS AND RULES: WHY THE EEA IS NOT THE SAME AS MEMBERSHIP OF THE SINGLE MARKET

This briefing paper summarises two issues that a post-Brexit United Kingdom would face if it re-joined the European Economic Area (EEA). It introduces the concept of the EEA+EU as a ‘regulatory union’ within which products, once approved in one country, can circulate freely. Secondly, Rules of Origin (RoOs) — which in effect specify the domestic share of value-added — would need to be adhered to, raising concerns about the viability of supply chains with UK links. Read Briefing Paper 3 – ROOS AND RULES: WHY THE EEA IS NOT THE SAME AS MEMBERSHIP OF THE SINGLE MARKET

By |2024-11-20T13:36:42+00:001 October 2016|Briefing Papers|0 Comments

Briefing Paper 1 – THE WORLD TRADE ORGANISATION: A SAFETY NET FOR A POST-BREXIT UK TRADE POLICY?

By electing to leave the European Union, the United Kingdom has chosen – among many other things – to leave the customs union (and the single market that includes all member states) and reassert its status as an individual member of the World Trade Organisation (WTO). In doing so, it will take sole responsibility for the control and governance of its external trade policy with all other WTO members (including the EU) within the framework of WTO rules. This paper explores the nature of those WTO commitments and how they might impact the UK from the date of its exit from the EU. Read Briefing Paper 1 – THE WORLD TRADE ORGANISATION: A SAFETY NET FOR A POST-BREXIT UK TRADE POLICY?

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