Brace for impact: Tougher rules ahead for third country food exports to the EU
On 19 February 2025, the European Commission unveiled its long-term strategy for farming and the agri-food sector with the publication of Vision for Agriculture and Food: Shaping Together an Attractive Farming and Agri-Food Sector for Future Generations. The document outlines the priorities and approaches that will shape EU policy initiatives to enhance the sector’s competitiveness and attractiveness—both now and through 2040. Framing its strategy within the context of recent widespread farmer protests and key policy recommendations for the future direction of the EU that came out from the Draghi report on EU competitiveness, Letta’s report on the Future of the EU Single Market, Niinistö’s report on Europe’s civil and military preparedness and readiness, as well as the Strategic Dialogue on the Future of EU Agriculture, the Commission underscores the urgent need for structural reforms. Quoting Draghi’s assertion that in a world of geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions, “dependencies are becoming vulnerabilities,” the Vision positions food security and food sovereignty as core elements of the EU’s broader strategy for security, competitiveness, and sustainability.
The Vision also reinforces the EU’s long-standing position that trade should not come at the expense of food safety, environmental protection, or animal welfare. It […]
Will Trump’s tariff policy correct an unusual imbalance?
One of the quirks of tariff regimes is that EU and UK light vehicle exports to the US face just a 2.5% tariff whereas those coming the other way face a 10% charge on a vehicle’s declared landed value[1]. It seems surprising that this difference has continued for as long as it has, but it probably won’t last much longer. President Trump has been threatening allies and enemies alike with tariffs but – as in Canada and Mexico – he has postponed them following political, or rather quasi-military concessions. It would not been entirely surprising if these threatened tariffs were not actually implemented. While with Trump it is unwise to be too definitive with predictions, in this fast-changing environment steel and aluminium-specific tariffs now appear likely.
Attention now shifts to the EU and the UK. The former has long been in the President’s sights, and the latter potentially is, too, although Trump has hinted he could give the UK better treatment than the EU. The promise of a second state visit and a ride down the Mall in a gilded cage or carriage, may have some economic benefits after all.
Significantly, before President Trump has “decided” on his tariff policy […]
How much damage could Trump’s tariffs do and what can be done?
The short answer to the first part of the question is: “a lot” – and the damage is likely to be both globally and to the US itself. A longer answer is that, in many respects, we do not really know. This is because it is unclear why these US policies are being introduced, whether they may be reversed, and what other policies may be introduced or threatened both by the US as well as by other countries. The short answer to the second part of the question is “not much”. However, a the longer answer would be: it is horribly complicated with so many unknowns, but governments and businesses need to think long term, cooperate and be proactive as opposed to reactive. This is not easy.
At present the policies being introduced against other countries largely amount to threatening to introduce or raise tariffs on goods. If we therefore focus on goods trade in 2023, the United States accounted for just under 14.5% of world imports, and just over 8% of world exports. This means that out of the total world demand for goods being exported, the US buys one-seventh of these and supplies roughly one-twelfth of world exports. Any […]
Trump’s tariffs: How much should we be concerned and why?
With President Donald Trump’s second term, the debate over the use of tariffs is making headlines. On his first day in office Trump once again raised the prospect of the strategic use of these tariffs: he threatened to impose them unless partner countries (Mexico, Canada or the EU) introduced changes in their trade policies or made concessions in other domains (China with TikTok). This approach is likely to have profound implications for both the US as well as on the global economy for three key reasons. First, it will impact the already strained multilateral trading system. Second, there are direct consequences of US tariffs on individual partner countries. Third, there is the question of how effective such actions will be for the US, and that will also depend on the extent of any retaliatory measures.
The UK-U.S. Trade Relationship
Trump has threatened to impose sweeping tariffs—ranging from 10% to 20% on all trading partners, and up to 60% on Chinese imports. These statements clearly cover a multitude of possibilities, and this generates considerable uncertainty. The UK government appears hopeful that as the US does not have a trade deficit with the UK, that the UK may not be targeted. However, this is […]
Bridging food and energy crises: A global imperative in a warming world
The interconnected challenges of food insecurity and energy vulnerability are among the defining issues of the 21st century. Both are exacerbated by factors such as climate change, economic inequalities, and geopolitical instabilities, creating substantial strain on global systems. These impacts are felt most acutely in low-income nations, where access to basic necessities like food and energy often remains precarious. As the world navigates these challenges, a key question arises: how can food and energy security be ensured without compromising one for the other?
Agriculture plays a vital role at the intersection of food production, energy consumption, and environmental sustainability. The sector accounts for almost 70% of global freshwater use and contributes over 20% of global greenhouse gas emissions.[1] Its reliance on fossil fuels—for mechanization, irrigation, transportation, and fertilizer production—has created a feedback loop that has the potential to exacerbate environmental degradation. This dependence also leaves agricultural systems vulnerable to energy price fluctuations, which could heighten the instability of food supplies.
Increasingly, agriculture is being looked to for dual responsibilities: feeding a growing global population and supporting cleaner energy transitions, such as through biofuel production. However, this dual role can place food security and energy needs in competition, as biofuel crops […]
From ‘efficient’ to ‘resilient’ supply chains, and beyond
Global supply chains are in the midst of a fundamental paradigm shift. From the late 1970s to the 2000s, many countries embraced economic interdependence through trade liberalisation and promoted a free market economy with minimal government intervention. From the global financial crisis in 2008 to the Covid-19 pandemic (2020-2023), governments have been shifting towards a more managed approach to trade. This trend has become more pronounced, as the world’s power balance changes, due to the rise of China, emerging technologies impact security and economy, and the sustainable global agenda becomes important for the world’s future in the 21st century.
Highly industrialised economies, which previously focussed on liberalising trade through the WTO and through free trade agreements (FTAs), are shifting to more neo mercantilist approaches. They are pursuing resilient supply chain policies and measures to support climate change, national security concerns and other non-trade objectives (e.g. human rights). On top of that, ‘America first’ protectionism under the incoming US Trump administration will cast new challenges to its trade partners – including its resilient supply chain allies. What are the implications for trade policy of this paradigm shift from efficient supply chains to resilient chains and the return of US unilateralism?
Major economic powers […]
The CPTPP does not prevent the UK from aligning its agri-food regulations with the EU.
One reason the UK Government wanted to join a trade agreement consisting of Pacific Rim countries, the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), was to prevent any current and future UK Governments, from undertaking regulatory alignment with the EU. As Lord Frost explained in 2021, ‘…. to do trade agreements with other countries [i.e. CPTPP] you need to have control of your own agri-food and SPS [Sanitary and Phytosanitary] rules”.
A UK-EU SPS agreement, which the Labour government has promised to pursue, would likely result in at least some alignment of regulation in SPS areas: human, animal and plant life and health. In these areas, the UK would lose some control over its rules. So, can the CPTPP prevent the UK from concluding an Agreement with the EU? We argue that it cannot.
New Zealand conclusively proves that it is indeed possible to be a CPTPP party and also have an EU veterinary agreement. Its EU veterinary agreement reduces the incidence of border checks in a few areas on animal products.
However, such a light agreement (New Zealand, which exports few products to the EU and from 18,000 kilometres away) would hardly resolve the border barriers facing UK […]
Surviving the General Product Safety Regulation: Challenges for small businesses
As the UK’s largest trading partner, any legislative changes to trade rules within the EU impact the UK’s trade with the EU. The EU General Product and Safety Regulations (GPSR), entering into force on December, is a case in point that will especially impact any small businesses conducting online sales.
The objective of this piece of legislation is to safeguard consumers in the EU against potentially dangerous products. By progressing from a Directive to a Regulation, the EU GPSR harmonises the product safety blueprint at an EU-wide level, to ensure consistency across all member states. In essence, the GPSR applies to any products placed on the EU market that have not already been regulated by existing EU harmonised legislation. The updated regulation is a significant revision of its predecessor, the EU General Product Safety Directive 2001/95/EC and builds on the Regulation (EU) 2019/1020 on Market Surveillance and Compliance of Products. While these rules have long applied to exports to the EU and Northern Ireland (under the Windsor Framework), the updated GPSR eliminates exceptions relating to the presence of an EU-based authorised representative. All small businesses selling online or through mail order must now have an Authorised Representative based in the EU […]
How Trump affects UK Trade Policy
David Henig is the Director of the UK Trade Policy Project at the European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE).
Just for a short time, all went quiet in the UK trade world. A Labour government meant the end of Conservative traumas over EU relations regularly resurfacing. President Biden didn’t do trade deals with anyone, and new UK Ministers made few swift decisions. Meanwhile, the EU reset has been more about smiles than substance.
To be fair, that wasn’t going to last. Though the secrecy instincts of Whitehall linger with a new government, there isn’t much point in a trade strategy shaped without extensive external input and some controversy over decisions. This will need to happen at some point (whether before or after publication) and is an inevitable consequence of choosing priorities.
Similarly, judging by ministerial visits, the only trade deal close to conclusion is with the Gulf Cooperation Council, which if agreed is likely to prove controversial, perhaps in terms of labour and environmental provisions, as well as making only a limited contribution to growth. Meanwhile, arguments over the level of ambition shown in the UK-EU reset are intensifying, as UK stakeholders advocating for ambition increasingly hear frustration from their contacts in […]
Cutting back on geoeconomics: The EU Anti-Deforestation Law
Erika Szyszczak is a Professor Emerita and a Fellow of the UKTPO. Will Disney is a sustainability researcher and independent consultant.
The European Union is using trade measures to achieve a host of policies – climate change, human rights, labour standards – but for one policy area the EU has been hit by a global backlash. Voices within and outside of the EU are calling for a delay, and a re-appraisal, of its ground-breaking anti-deforestation Regulation which came into force on 29 June 2023. The EU has been forced to consider delaying the implementation of the Regulation by 12 months (until 30 December 2025) for large operators and traders. It has also been delayed for micro and small enterprises: until 30 June 2026.
The Regulation aims to promote ‘deforestation-free’ products and reduce the EU’s impact on global deforestation and forest degradation, as part of the action plan embracing the European Green Deal, the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 and the Farm to Fork Strategy. Firms trading in the EU have been preparing for the full implementation of the Regulation by exercising due diligence in their value chains. This has been done to ensure that any trading in cattle, cocoa, coffee, oil palm, rubber, soya and […]
