Briefing Paper 60 – CPTPP AND AGRI-FOOD REGULATION: CROSSING THE EU-EXIT RUBICON?
The influence of trade agreements in shaping UK food safety and standards has become almost existential in defining the UK’s post-EU identity. Acceding to the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is far from ideology-free: it symbolises the UK’s desire for regulatory independence from the EU and sets out a new post-Brexit direction. In this Briefing Paper, we look whether CPTPP accession seems likely to lower UK food standards and prevent the UK from agreeing to continued regulatory alignment with the EU. The answer is, not necessarily, if the UK Government communicates clearly and explicitly to CPTPP parties its intent to maintain its current regulatory approach, preferably through the use of so-called side letters.
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UK-Australia FTA – Elbow bumps and all
16 June 2021
Michael Gasiorek is Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory at the University of Sussex. Guillermo Larbalestier is Research Assistant in International Trade at the University of Sussex and Fellow of the UKTPO.
Indications of a trade deal between the UK and Australia first surfaced soon after the Brexit referendum. This week it was announced that the two nations had agreed on the broad terms of the deal. The news was accompanied by images of PM Boris Johnson and his Australian counterpart, Scott Morrison, bumping elbows (the new handshake, if you will) and exchanging chocolate bars over baskets of British and Australian products.
The deal has significance for several reasons. First, it is the first trade deal outside the EU that was designed from scratch. So far, UK trade agreements with other non-EU countries have been “continuity agreements” that were almost entirely based on pre-existing deals between the EU and the other nations (we include UK-Japan as de facto in this category). Secondly, it signifies the UK’s continued commitment to liberalising and opening trade, […]
Briefing Paper 59 – G7 LEADERS SHOULD DISCUSS INTERNATIONAL TRADE (SERIOUSLY)
International trade in a digital world is increasingly influenced by domestic regulation and is linked to non-trade areas such as health or climate change. This makes it difficult for the WTO’s consensus- and trade-focused structure to make swift progress. This Briefing Paper looks at how the G7 leadership across all four Trade Tracks could provide the necessary impetus for multilateral or open plurilateral solutions, in order to avert further fragmentation of the trading system.
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Briefing Paper 58 – TCA DISPUTE RESOLUTION MECHANISMS AND SUBSIDY CONTROL COMMITMENTS
The Trade and Cooperation Agreement sets a new precedent for bilateral trade agreements by incorporating a set of so-called “level playing field” commitments that seek to maintain the Parties’ regulatory convergence in certain policy areas but without prohibiting their respective sovereign right to choose future regulatory divergence. Instead, continued convergence is encouraged by the inclusion of robust dispute resolution mechanisms, which provide for the possibility of either Party taking unilateral trade defence measures in certain circumstances. This Briefing Paper, by Dr Totis Kotsonis of Pinsent Masons LLP, looks at subsidy control, which forms a key part of the level playing field commitments in detail, describing the dispute resolution mechanisms that are available and analysing the effectiveness of the unilateral trade defence measures for which the TCA provides in this context. For reasons which are discussed in the paper, the author concludes that UK subsidies might be more prone to challenges than EU State Aid and that whilst the TCA inter-Party consultation provisions might prove crucial in limiting the risk of inter-Party disputes arising, further development of the UK domestic control subsidy system is required to make it more robust and less prone to challenges.
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‘Global Britain’ is a slogan: global Britain is a fact
5 May 2021.
L. Alan Winters is Professor of Economics and Founding Director of the UKTPO. Guillermo Larbalestier is Research Assistant in International Trade at the University of Sussex and Fellow of the UKTPO.
The Government’s Integrated Review, Global Britain in a competitive age, published in March 2021, presents the Government’s vision for the UK in 2030 and outlines plans to achieve it. It emphasises the importance of Britain asserting its influence on the world stage by sustaining advancements in science and technology, shaping the rules-based international order, and strengthening security and defences at home and overseas. It has a section titled “Putting trade at the heart of Global Britain” and expresses support for the multilateral system, designing rules and ensuring trade is fair and efficient. The document says that it is a “guide for action”; it says lots of the right things, but on the ground the UK is going backwards. […]
Briefing Paper 57 – POST-BREXIT: UK TRADE IN GOODS
After decades of close economic integration, the UK’s relationship with the EU, its biggest and closest trading partner, is now governed by the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). In this Briefing Paper we look at how UK merchandise trade has performed under the new regulations in the first quarter of 2021. We employ different methodologies to quantify a TCA-effect and find that trade with the EU was hit hard in January 2021 but may have rebounded in February and March 2021, with heterogenous effects across sectors. We also investigate the extent to which UK exports have benefited from tariff-free access in EU markets.
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Briefing Paper 56 – THE CARBON BORDER ADJUSTMENT TRILEMMA
In advance of the EU Commission’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism proposal in July, this Briefing Paper offers a conceptual rubric for evaluating CBA design as a policy trilemma between environmental ambition, technical feasibility and fairness. The paper discusses each aspect of the trilemma and outlines potential tradeoffs that may be necessary between reducing emissions, navigating the complexities of calculating charges, and ensuring mechanisms are WTO-compliant and fair to developing countries. The Briefing Paper also argues that CBA also gives rise to the need for new forms of trade and climate cooperation to determine which other countries or producers have equivalent pricing, and therefore should be exempted. The upcoming G7 and COP, both hosted by the UK, provide an opportunity to make progress on these important questions.
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Two months in: the impact of Brexit on UK trade
20 April 2021.
Michael Gasiorek is Professor of Economics and Director of the UKTPO. Yohannes Ayele is Research Fellow in the Economics of Brexit at the University of Sussex and Fellow of the UKTPO.
A decline in trade with the EU was expected following the coming into force of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement between the UK and the EU on the 1st of January. Nevertheless, when the UK January trade figures were released in early March, almost unanimously commentators were surprised by the extent of the decline. We now have the data for February and so in this blog we update the numbers and discuss their significance. […]
Challenges ahead for the UK to join CPTPP
16 April 2021
Minako Morita-Jaeger is an International Trade Policy Consultant and Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory at the University of Sussex.
On 1st February, the UK asked to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)[1]. While the request appears motivated more by foreign policy than economic benefit, joining the CPTPP will require the UK to accept CPTPP rules which may impact on UK economy and society in specific ways. […]
The Craft of Trade Warfare
31 March 2021
Erika Szyszczak is Professor Emerita and a Fellow of the UKTPO.
Trade has become a new tool of political and economic warfare. Recent years have seen a rise in threats and the disruptive use of use tariffs, export and import bans to further political aims by the two economic superpowers, the US and China. Other countries wishing to assert greater political influence, such as Russia or Turkey, have joined the fray. Although the disputes are characterized as being between States, the real impact of trade wars is felt by businesses, workers, consumers and ordinary citizens. The impact is felt in the COVID-19 pandemic, where critical supplies of medical products or Personal Protective Equipment are essential in a health emergency. […]
