A Fine Kettle of Fish
23 March 2021
Michael Gasiorek is Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory at the University of Sussex. Suzannah Walmsley is Principal Consultant and Fisheries and Aquaculture Business Development Manager at ABPmer.
Last week the UK’s trade data for January 2021 came out and the evidence was pretty striking. It showed a dramatic decline in UK exports and imports in January, and particularly so with the EU. Now some of this will have been driven by Covid-related lockdown restrictions, and some of the dramatic fall in trade with the EU itself may have been driven by firms’ stockpiling in November and December to protect themselves against the much-publicised potential border difficulties arising from the UK’s exit from the EU and the end of the transition period.
In this blog we dig a bit deeper into those numbers and focus just on fisheries. […]
What can we learn from one month’s trade data: UK-EU trade in January 2021
13 March 2021
Yohannes Ayele is Research Fellow in the Economics of Brexit, Nicolo Tamberi is Research Officer in Economics, and Guillermo Larbalestier is Research Assistant in International Trade at the University of Sussex. All are Fellows of the UKTPO.
On Friday 12 March, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) released the UK’s trade in goods figures for January 2021, providing data for the first month following the end of the Brexit transition period. The ONS has provided their own interpretation of these data portraying a rather gloomy scene for UK trade. We have downloaded the raw data and here offer some initial thoughts on what we learn from the changes in trade flows in January 2021. […]
The UK must develop a cross-cutting strategy for trade and climate policy in order to become a world leader in both
3 March 2021
Dr Emily Lydgate is Senior Lecturer in Environmental Law at the University of Sussex, and a Deputy Director of UKTPO. Chloe Anthony is a doctoral researcher at the University of Sussex.
This blog was first published on LSE British Politics and Policy.
Due to differences in underlying logic, there is much potential for trade and climate policy to conflict. Fundamentally, world trade rules and agreements aim to facilitate the free movement of goods and services, and restrict subsidies that distort trade. Climate policy, on the other hand, aims to support the low-carbon economy and restrict trade in high-carbon goods and services. The UK was the first country to put its climate target into law in 2008; it has met its first two interim targets for emissions reduction and is on course to meet the third in 2022. Yet analysis has shown that the first two emissions targets were met due to changes in accounting methods and the financial crisis, rather than due to effective policymaking. […]
Briefing Paper 55 – EU ENFORCEMENT OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE RULES
This Briefing Paper analyses the EU’s move towards a more defensive trade policy, which enhances enforcement powers and commits to including sustainable development, environmental and labour protection goals in trade agreements. The paper examines the Current Trade Disputes where the EU has commenced formal action under a Free Trade Agreement – against Algeria, Ukraine, the Southern African Union and South Korea – and discusses the EU’s review and enhancement of International Trade Dispute Mechanisms. Professor Szyszczak concludes that, until the WTO Appellate Structure is operational, the EU is setting the pace for international trade dispute resolution.
Read Briefing Paper 55: EU ENFORCEMENT OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE RULES
Two key things to know about Freeports
25 February 2021
Peter Holmes is a Fellow of the UKTPO. Guillermo Larbalestier is Research Assistant in International Trade at the University of Sussex.
The Government’s competition for proposals to create ten Freeports across the UK came to a close earlier this month with an announcement of the successful locations expected soon. Freeports are areas within a country that are outside its customs territory. Goods coming into the country via Freeports are exempt from paying tariffs until they enter the mainland or are shipped to another country. In the UK Freeports model[1] these areas may also be subject to special regulatory, tax, or subsidy rules. Such features may make the terms Enterprise Zone, Special Economic Zone or, the more general, Free Trade Zone more appropriate. The full details of all bids have not been published but summary reports indicate wide variety of business cases. […]
Enhancement and Enforcement of International Trade Rules: The EU Leads the Way
18 February 2021
Erika Szyszczak is Professor Emerita and a Fellow of the UKTPO.
Traditionally, the legal enforcement of obligations was the Achilles heel of bilateral and multilateral international agreements. The EU has signalled that it wants to conduct international trade based upon the rule of law. The demise of the WTO Appellate body since 11 December 2019 has focused the EU into using and bolstering its own Dispute Resolution mechanisms in international trade agreements. The significance of this approach is seen in the Trade and Co-operation Agreement between the EU and the UK 2020, containing innovative procedures for rebalancing the trade elements of the TCA (and ultimately cancelling them) if one side changes its standards in ways that materially affect trade. Such rebalancing can be triggered in several circumstances, including via periodic reviews of the whole trade relationship. […]
The value of the CPTPP for the UK
3 February 2021
Michael Gasiorek is Professor of Economics and Director of the UKTPO. Guillermo Larbalestier is Research Assistant in International Trade, and Nicolo Tamberi is Research Officer in Economics, both for the UKTPO.
As widely anticipated and signalled in advance, the International Trade Secretary announced on Monday 1 February that the UK notified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), of its intention to join. The CPTPP is a free trade agreement between 11 ‘Pacific’ countries which was signed in 2018.[1] This is an early step in the UK’s newfound and hard-won sovereign and independent trade policy. […]
Briefing Paper 54 – TAKING STOCK OF THE UK-EU TRADE AND COOPERATION AGREEMENT: GOVERNANCE, STATE SUBSIDIES AND THE LEVEL PLAYING FIELD
The Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) between the UK and the EU came into force on the 1st January 2021. This Briefing Paper considers the governance, subsidies and the level playing field provisions. The analysis reveals that much of the area lies outside the normal dispute settlement procedure and in some cases bespoke procedures replace or supplement it. There are some innovative clauses concerning procedures to deal with imbalances arising from future labour and environmental policies, and the potential for review of the balance of the entire trade heading, but these are quite unknown quantities and have the capacity to create perpetual wrangling and bad feeling between the UK and the EU.
Read Briefing Paper 54: TAKING STOCK OF THE UK-EU TRADE AND COOPERATION AGREEMENT: GOVERNANCE, STATE SUBSIDIES AND THE LEVEL PLAYING FIELD
Briefing Paper 53 – TAKING STOCK OF THE UK-EU TRADE AND COOPERATION AGREEMENT: TRADE IN SERVICES AND DIGITAL TRADE
The Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) between the UK and the EU came into force on the 1st January 2021. This Briefing Paper looks at the main changes to trading services. The authors find that provisions in the TCA are a major setback for services sectors (compared to the conditions for trading services within the Single Market or during the transition period), particularly for financial and transportation services. As a service-driven economy, this is a weak deal for the UK. A general ramification is that services trade with the EU may have to rely increasingly on commercial presence rather than cross-border supply. This shift, though by no means costless, will be relatively easier for large businesses that may already have affiliate enterprises within the EU-27. Furthermore, the TCA is an incomplete agreement in the sense that the precise conditions under which services can be traded with the EU still need to be worked out in a number of areas, including financial services, cross-border data flows, and mutual recognition of professional qualifications.
Read Briefing Paper 53: TAKING STOCK OF THE UK-EU TRADE AND COOPERATION AGREEMENT: TRADE IN SERVICES AND DIGITAL TRADE
Briefing Paper 52 – TAKING STOCK OF THE UK-EU TRADE AND COOPERATION AGREEMENT: TRADE IN GOODS
The Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) between the UK and the EU came into force on the 1st January 2021. This Briefing Paper focusses on the provisions on trade in goods. It provides an analysis of the changes in tariffs; customs and trade facilitation; rules of origin; mutual recognition of testing and certification and takes a close look at one sector – fisheries – that was so contentious during the negotiations. The TCA is highly unusual in that it is an agreement which raises barriers to trade, and whilst it offers complete elimination of tariffs and quotas many other costs relating to trade have not been successfully minimized.
Read Briefing Paper 52: TAKING STOCK OF THE UK-EU TRADE AND COOPERATION AGREEMENT: TRADE IN GOODS
