The curious absence of services trade
14 December 2016
With exports of services worth £220 billion to the UK economy, we need to make sure that Brexit discussions don’t ignore this vital component of the UK’s trading environment.
Dr Ingo Borchert is Lecturer in Economics and a fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. […]
A special deal for the car industry: how could it work?
16 November 2016
At the end of last month, Nissan confirmed a major investment in its Sunderland site following support and assurances from Teresa May. This news was received with much speculation as to what the “support and assurances” of the British government could be.
Whilst the details are yet to emerge from Number 10, Dr Peter Holmes reveals different options of what a special post-Brexit deal for Nissan, and the car industry generally, could be. […]
President Trump and Brexit
9 November 2016
L. Alan Winters, Professor of Economics and Director of UKTPO.
Donald Trump viewed Brexit as a great victory. He also said that the UK would not be at the back of the line for trade deals – perhaps because there would be no line! But where does Trump’s victory leave the overall strategy of Brexit? It makes keeping good access to the EU market – some form of soft Brexit – even more important than it was previously. […]
Negotiating the UK’s post-Brexit trade arrangements
7 November 2016
L. Alan Winters, Professor of Economics and Director of UKTPO.
The ideal trading partner is rich, large, similar and next door. For the UK this means the EU, and for the UK government, this means trade negotiations with our European neighbours must take priority.
In my recent article for the NIESR November Review, I explore the reasons why negotiating the UK’s future trade arrangements is a massive job. These are the main points I raise. […]
Briefing Paper 6 SERVICES TRADE IN THE UK: WHAT IS AT STAKE?
Trade in services is economically significant for several reasons; it directly affects UK consumers’ welfare in such sectors as telecommunications, health or retail distribution; producer services such as finance, transportation or professional services are inputs into both the production and international exchange of goods; and it makes a positive contribution to the UK’s current account. Brexit will have important repercussions for the UK’s economic ties with the EU in the realm of services markets. This paper highlights how Brexit might directly and indirectly affect UK services trade and policy-making in this area.
Read Briefing Paper 6 – SERVICES TRADE IN THE UK: WHAT IS AT STAKE?
Briefing Paper 5 – UK-EU TRADE RELATIONS POST BREXIT: TOO MANY RED LINES?
This briefing paper provides an evaluation of the feasibility of different options for post-Brexit trade relations. With the EU accounting for close to 50% of the UK’s imports and exports of goods and services, the focus in this paper is on the UK’s future trading relations with the EU itself. Whilst all of the options listed in this paper are problematic, the aim is to examine the limitations of what may be feasible and – in so doing – to suggest a way, or ways, forward. Given that the UK’s objectives take the form of seeking to impose certain constraints on the post-Brexit outcome, we look at the extent to which each option is consistent with these ‘red lines’.
Read Briefing Paper 5 – UK-EU TRADE RELATIONS POST BREXIT: TOO MANY RED LINES?
A Brexit reality check in Stockholm
19 October 2016
L. Alan Winters is Professor of Economics and Director of the UKTPO
Rule 1 for negotiation: work out what you want and how much you can pay for it.
Rule 2: try to understand where the other side is coming from and how they feel.
The muted mood this week among trade specialists in Sweden, one of the UK’s closest allies in the EU, should serve as a reality check ahead of Brexit negotiations. If we want to make Brexit work, we need to take their views seriously. […]
Brexit and the regions: a lighter shade of dark
14 October 2016
L. Alan Winters is Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex, and director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. Nick Jacob is an associate tutor and research student in economics – also at the University of Sussex.
Few doubt that Brexit poses some immense challenges for the British economy. But for a government that professes to want an economy that ‘works for everyone’, there is possibly one encouraging factor: Brexit seems likely to help re-balance the economy. This note asks what Brexit implies for different parts of the UK and suggests two reasons why regions outside London and the South East could be less severely challenged. […]
Brexit, banks and bother
12 October 2016
Guest blog by Phil Molyneux, Dean of the College of Business, Law, Education and Social Sciences and Professor of Banking and Finance at Bangor University.
It’s not looking good in the City or anywhere within the UK financial services sector. The sector contributed £66 billion in tax revenues to the UK Exchequer in 2015 – around 11% of total income – so this is potentially a concern for all of us. […]
Briefing Paper 4 – TRIGGERING ARTICLE 50 TEU A LEGAL ANALYSIS
Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU) will govern the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. Several aspects of the interpretation and application of Article 50 TEU pose particular challenges, including domestic controversy regarding the constitutional requirements for triggering Article 50 TEU, the short time-span of negotiation, and the uncertain role for the UK in trade negotiations with the EU and the rest of the world during the withdrawal process. This paper outlines these issues, focusing in particular on the EU and international trade dimensions of withdrawal, in order to provide clarity and highlight potential pitfalls affecting both the EU and the UK.
Read Briefing Paper 4 – TRIGGERING ARTICLE 50 TEU A LEGAL ANALYSIS
