This year, the UK Government will replace its current preferential trading scheme for low and lower-middle income countries with the Developing Countries Trading Scheme (DCTS). This Briefing Paper looks at and evaluates two key changes in the DCTS: changes in the eligibility criteria for the Enhanced Preferences sub-scheme, and changes in the rules of origin to use preferences under the Comprehensive Preferences sub-scheme offered to Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Using a novel RoOs Restrictiveness Index, the authors find that the RoOs under the DCTS are, on average, less restrictive than those under the former scheme. They also conclude that most benefits are likely to be accrued by LDCs both in the short and long term due to more lenient rules of origin, extended cumulation rules, and being eligible for the Enhanced DCTS if they graduate from LDC status. Read Briefing Paper 74: THE UK’S NEW (AND IMPROVED?) DEVELOPING COUNTRIES TRADING SCHEME

New analysis presented in our Briefing Paper, The challenges facing UK firms: Trade and supply chains reveals that UK businesses are struggling with increased costs, labour and skill issues and supply shortages following the UK’s departure from the European Union. The authors of the Briefing Paper analysed over 2,800 responses to three surveys issued by the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), to help produce a long-term perspective on the challenges facing UK businesses. They examine the main challenges and opportunities reported by businesses over 2021 and 2022 and two specific trade-related areas. The first is on the difficulties and advantages for businesses arising from the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). The second is on supply chain challenges. The results show that as a result of the TCA, UK businesses are reporting significant difficulties and disadvantages, including increased red tape, bureaucracy and costs as well as shipping and transport issues. Such increases inevitably lead to both shortages of products and rises in prices for the UK public. Read Briefing Paper 73: THE CHALLENGES FACING UK FIRMS: TRADE AND SUPPLY CHAINS

This Briefing Paper compares the preference utilisation rates (PURs) of both the UK and EU imports under the Trade and Cooperation Agreement. PURs tell us the amount of eligible imports that come in tariff-free (that is, preference eligible in a free trade agreement, the extent to which preferences are being used) and allow for the evaluation of the effectiveness of a trade agreement. We find that the utilisation of preferential tariffs differs between the EU and the UK. EU exporters are utilising preferences more than UK exporters and UK exporters tend to use preferences more where the value of trade is larger. The Paper analyses the distribution of PURs across products and composition issues to identify reasons for low utilisation rates. Read Briefing Paper 72: PREFERENCE UTILISATION IN THE TCA: HOW ARE WE DOING?

Policy discussions about the effects and opportunities of international trade recognise that some parts of the economy might be more sensitive than others to changes in trade and/or trade policy, but the concept of a sensitive industry has different meanings. In our Briefing Paper, Identifying sensitive and strategic sectors, we aim to provide a conceptual framework for considering the factors that could identify industries that may be sensitive or strategic from a trade perspective; to review the range of information that can identify these factors; and to illustrate the ways in which this information can be usefully applied. Accompanying the Briefing Paper is a spreadsheet file with the underlying indicators and some tools of analysis which we hope will be of use and interest to some readers. The spreadsheet also includes detailed information about data sources and any data adjustments made. Read Briefing Paper 71: IDENTIFYING SENSITIVE AND STRATEGIC SECTORS

In this Briefing Paper, we look at the European Commission’s recently proposed unilateral measures for European Union trade security. Taken together, the Foreign Subsidies Regulation and the Anti-Coercion Instrument are aimed at enabling the Commission to counteract the distortive impact of ‘third country’ subsidies on EU business competitiveness; as well as to investigate and retaliate against the perceived use of economic coercion by foreign governments against the EU, its Member States and firms. While such policies may be primarily targeted at China, they would de facto apply to all third countries including Russia, the US, and the UK. While both measures would give the Commission wide discretion in their application, the Anti-Coercion Instrument would specifically allow it to bypass the World Trade Organization dispute settlement process and possible wider international law commitments. We conclude that with continuing geopolitical uncertainty for the rules-based global trade environment – compounded by the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine – the EU treads a careful line between the development of a specialist trade policy and a piecemeal approach in respect of the overarching restraints of Member States, international law commitments and other stakeholders’ fundamental rights. Read Briefing Paper 70: Trade and Security: The [...]

In this paper we discuss how the customs and tax benefits central to the UK Freeports policy may undermine businesses’ export opportunities. Many of the UK’s Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) contain provisions explicitly denying preferential (duty-free) access to goods which contain imported materials on which UK customs duty was not paid (known as “duty drawback bans”). But, even in the absence of duty drawback bans, the preferential status of goods manufactured in Freeports is not guaranteed. There are other ways in which goods exported from Freeports might find themselves subject to penalties, such as anti-subsidy duties (whether under WTO or FTA rules), if partner countries consider that the regime in Freeports constitutes implicit subsidisation (e.g., via tax breaks). Lastly, we highlight the diverse experience of free ports and free zones around the world. Read Briefing Paper 69: Exporting from UK Freeports: Duty Drawback, Origin and Subsidies

In addition to the military support being given to Ukraine, efforts to halt any further Russian advancements continue to be focused on economic sanctions that aim to hamper Russia’s ability to finance the invasion. This Briefing Paper provides analysis of the pros, cons and effectiveness of current trade policy responses in terms of the short-term aim of cutting Russia’s oil rents and the long-term aim of creating a complete Energy Curtain between Russia and the West. We find that whilst current interventions may go some way in meeting the target of decoupling from Russian oil and gas, they may not be effective in the aim of impacting negatively on Russian revenues, and in the process serve to raise energy prices. While high prices on fossil fuels are beneficial for the green transition, this is only true when there are viable alternatives to fossil fuels available. Read Briefing Paper 68: The Energy Curtain: All Eyes On Fossil Fuel Prices This Summer

Despite the positive narrative around the growth in global supply chains, we currently see considerable discussion and growing concern over the issue of ‘supply chain resilience’. This Briefing Paper analyses the rationale behind greater supply chain resilience and sustainability and the policies being used to address vulnerability in certain supply chains. The author finds that policy responses do not always concern supply chain resilience and in many cases they may have been designed more to protect domestic producers. To negate the risk that supply chain resilience is used as a get-out clause for a wide range of industrial policy interventions. This Briefing Paper suggests a taxonomy for understanding different possible legitimate reasons for being concerned about supply chains and provides ten ways more international coordination could be achieved. Read Briefing Paper 67: Supply Chain Resilience: The dangers of ‘pick n mix’

This Briefing Paper aims to further understanding of the importance of trade in services for the UK economy. In particular, to shed light on the relationship between services and manufacturing trade, including an increasingly significant form of services trade known as Mode 5. We explore input-output data, firm-level data and the links between services and manufacturing in the context of the UK’s independent trade policy. The authors provide evidence that shows that the nature of how these services interact with goods trade and the policy or market access barriers and their implications need to be understood in much greater detail for policy purposes. Read Briefing Paper 66: Links between services and manufacturing trade in the UK: Mode 5 and beyond

In this Briefing Paper, the authors review the importance of the UK-US trade relationship and identify clear interests for closer economic cooperation. They discuss the main challenges for trade discussions and suggest that bilateral cooperation – primarily in ad hoc regulatory areas – has potential, but there is a lack of interest on the US side. Finally, they look at broader economic issues and systematic policy issues, such as climate change, and multilateral economic relations where the UK hopes to cooperate with the US. Read Briefing Paper 65: DEEPENING AND MANAGING TRANSATLANTIC ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIPS