The Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) between the UK and the EU came into force on the 1st January 2021. This Briefing Paper considers the governance, subsidies and the level playing field provisions. The analysis reveals that much of the area lies outside the normal dispute settlement procedure and in some cases bespoke procedures replace or supplement it.  There are some innovative clauses concerning procedures to deal with imbalances arising from future labour and environmental policies, and the potential for review of the balance of the entire trade heading,  but these are quite unknown quantities and have the capacity to create perpetual wrangling and bad feeling between the UK and the EU. Read Briefing Paper 54: TAKING STOCK OF THE UK-EU TRADE AND COOPERATION AGREEMENT: GOVERNANCE, STATE SUBSIDIES AND THE LEVEL PLAYING FIELD 

The Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) between the UK and the EU came into force on the 1st January 2021. This Briefing Paper looks at the main changes to trading services. The authors find that provisions in the TCA are a major setback for services sectors (compared to the conditions for trading services within the Single Market or during the transition period), particularly for financial and transportation services. As a service-driven economy, this is a weak deal for the UK. A general ramification is that services trade with the EU may have to rely increasingly on commercial presence rather than cross-border supply. This shift, though by no means costless, will be relatively easier for large businesses that may already have affiliate enterprises within the EU-27. Furthermore, the TCA is an incomplete agreement in the sense that the precise conditions under which services can be traded with the EU still need to be worked out in a number of areas, including financial services, cross-border data flows, and mutual recognition of professional qualifications. Read Briefing Paper 53: TAKING STOCK OF THE UK-EU TRADE AND COOPERATION AGREEMENT: TRADE IN SERVICES AND DIGITAL TRADE

The Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) between the UK and the EU came into force on the 1st January 2021. This Briefing Paper focusses on the provisions on trade in goods. It provides an analysis of the changes in tariffs; customs and trade facilitation; rules of origin; mutual recognition of testing and certification and takes a close look at one sector – fisheries – that was so contentious during the negotiations. The TCA is highly unusual in that it is an agreement which raises barriers to trade, and whilst it offers complete elimination of tariffs and quotas many other costs relating to trade have not been successfully minimized. Read Briefing Paper 52: TAKING STOCK OF THE UK-EU TRADE AND COOPERATION AGREEMENT:  TRADE IN GOODS 

In this paper, the authors update their previous analysis of Brexit to reflect the presumed Free Trade Agreement (FTA). They assess the costs of Brexit with such an FTA and ask how much benefit the FTA will deliver relative to ‘No Deal’.  This paper improves on previous analyses by including more detailed modelling of the costs of doing trade and of the barriers to services trade that the exit from the Single Market will introduce.  Even with a deal, Brexit increases UK-EU trade costs, reduces trade between the two partners, and requires resources for form-filling, queuing, etc. The net effect is that the UK’s GDP will be 4.4% lower than in the absence of Brexit, compared with 5.5% lower if there had been no deal. Read Briefing Paper 51: The Costs of Brexit

The UK-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement has been presented by the UK Government as the first Free Trade Agreement (FTA) for the UK as an independent trading nation. This Briefing Paper provides an analysis of this new agreement in relation to the Japan-EU EPA and draws two major lessons for the UK’s future free trade agreements.  First, the authors find that it mostly replicates the Japan-EU EPA, with the UK failing to break new ground after independence from the EU trade regime. Second, they argue that substantive and inclusive policy discussions with a range of stakeholders need to take place to enable public scrutiny and discussion of the implications of policy positions, before negotiating with trade partners. Read Briefing Paper 50: The UK-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement: Lessons for the UK’s future trade agreements

The House of Lords are currently debating the controversial Internal Market Bill. In so doing, they are highlighting the ways in which the Bill threatens to undermine the devolution settlement. In this Briefing Paper, Emily Lydgate and Chloe Anthony spell out the issues that the Internal Market Bill raises for the relationship between England, Scotland and Wales in the critical area of food standards. The authors conclude that the overriding outcome is the consolidation of power in the central UK Government, raising significant – and still unresolved – constitutional and trade questions. Read Briefing Paper 49: MAINTAINING THE UK INTERNAL MARKET FOR FOOD STANDARDS: FRAGMENTATION, COOPERATION OR CONTROL?

This Briefing Paper considers how Brexit will impinge on the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries currently governed by the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) negotiated by the EU. The authors explore whether the new Brexit-induced frictions on UK-EU trade will reduce the demand for ACP inputs – such as Cocoa products – into the goods that the UK and EU trade with each other. They conclude that the economic effects of even a ‘No Deal’ Brexit on ACP countries’ trade will be tiny in aggregate, because ACP countries supply only small amounts of inputs into the products involved in UK-EU trade. Read Briefing Paper 48: THE “BEARABLE LIGHTNESS” OF BREXIT ON THE ACP COUNTRIES’ TRADE: GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS AND RULES OF ORIGIN

The UK is the first major economy to commit to a net-zero emissions by 2050 climate target, and it also has ambitious trade policy goals of providing multilateral leadership and concluding major new trade agreements. This Briefing Paper examines the coherence of UK trade and climate goals in regards to whether the UK Government has set out a clear strategy for integrating trade and climate policy, is acting on areas of mutual supportiveness, and is addressing areas of potential conflict. The authors find room for improvement in relation to all three areas. They identify a lack of cross-cutting strategy in UK climate legislation and in its approach to free trade agreements,  and suggest the UK reforms its approach to fossil fuel subsidies and builds on its efforts in regard to environmental goods. Finally, the authors underscore the need for ambition and transparency for green subsidies and carbon pricing. Read Briefing Paper 47: CAN THE UK GOVERNMENT BE ‘WORLD-LEADING’ IN BOTH TRADE AND CLIMATE POLICY

This Briefing Paper examines the underlying issues related to the Japan-UK Free Trade Agreement negotiation. The author argues that there are two significant challenges underlying the Japan-UK FTA negotiation: the EU-UK FTA and the timeframe. The paper then discusses what should be prioritised to make the Japan-UK FTA ambitious, taking into account the unprecedented short negotiating timeframe, and proposes a possible mechanism to cope with unfinished business in order to make the agreement truly valuable in the long-term. Read Briefing Paper 46: THE JAPAN-UK FREE TRADE AGREEMENT – CONTINUITY OR NO CONTINUITY? HOW CAN IT STILL BE AMBITIOUS?

The UK’s negotiation of a Free Trade Agreement with the EU will necessarily involve defining rules of origin, and before long negotiations with countries such as the US, Japan, and Australia will face the same task. In this Briefing Paper, the authors outline what rules of origin are, why they are needed, why they are complex, and which sectors in the UK may be most vulnerable to more restrictive rules of origin. They also discuss why the EU is highly unlikely to agree to the UK’s proposal on cumulation in rules of origin and argue that the obvious solution to this is for the UK to agree to the EU’s Pan Euro-Mediterranean Rules of Origin (PEM) which are the basis of the EU’s cumulation arrangements with a wide range of its neighbours. Any other outcome is likely to reduce the UK’s take up of trade preferences in its FTA with the EU. Read Briefing Paper 45: WE’RE GOING TO MAKE THEM AN OFFER THEY CAN REFUSE: RULES OF ORIGIN AND THE UK-EU FREE TRADE AGREEMENT