Brace for impact: Tougher rules ahead for third country food exports to the EU

On 19 February 2025, the European Commission unveiled its long-term strategy for farming and the agri-food sector with the publication of Vision for Agriculture and Food: Shaping Together an Attractive Farming and Agri-Food Sector for Future Generations. The document outlines the priorities and approaches that will shape EU policy initiatives to enhance the sector’s competitiveness and attractiveness—both now and through 2040. Framing its strategy within the context of recent widespread farmer protests and key policy recommendations for the future direction of the EU that came out from the Draghi report on EU competitiveness, Letta’s report on the Future of the EU Single Market, Niinistö’s report on Europe’s civil and military preparedness and readiness, as well as the Strategic Dialogue on the Future of EU Agriculture, the Commission underscores the urgent need for structural reforms. Quoting Draghi’s assertion that in a world of geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions, “dependencies are becoming vulnerabilities,” the Vision positions food security and food sovereignty as core elements of the EU’s broader strategy for security, competitiveness, and sustainability. The Vision also reinforces the EU’s long-standing position that trade should not come at the expense of food safety, environmental protection, or animal welfare. It does so while acknowledging [...]

By |2025-02-21T17:59:25+00:0021 February 2025|Blog, International Trade, UK- EU|0 Comments

Will Trump’s tariff policy correct an unusual imbalance?

One of the quirks of tariff regimes is that EU and UK light vehicle exports to the US face just a 2.5% tariff whereas those coming the other way face a 10% charge on a vehicle's declared landed value[1]. It seems surprising that this difference has continued for as long as it has, but it probably won’t last much longer. President Trump has been threatening allies and enemies alike with tariffs but – as in Canada and Mexico – he has postponed them following political, or rather quasi-military concessions. It would not been entirely surprising if these threatened tariffs were not actually implemented. While with Trump it is unwise to be too definitive with predictions, in this fast-changing environment steel and aluminium-specific tariffs now appear likely. Attention now shifts to the EU and the UK. The former has long been in the President’s sights, and the latter potentially is, too, although Trump has hinted he could give the UK better treatment than the EU. The promise of a second state visit and a ride down the Mall in a gilded cage or carriage, may have some economic benefits after all. Significantly, before President Trump has “decided” on his tariff policy [...]

By |2025-02-11T08:59:37+00:0010 February 2025|Blog, International Trade, UK - Non EU|0 Comments

How much damage could Trump’s tariffs do and what can be done?

The short answer to the first part of the question is: “a lot” - and the damage is likely to be both globally and to the US itself. A longer answer is that, in many respects, we do not really know. This is because it is unclear why these US policies are being introduced, whether they may be reversed, and what other policies may be introduced or threatened both by the US as well as by other countries. The short answer to the second part of the question is “not much”. However, a the longer answer would be: it is horribly complicated with so many unknowns, but governments and businesses need to think long term, cooperate and be proactive as opposed to reactive. This is not easy. At present the policies being introduced against other countries largely amount to threatening to introduce or raise tariffs on goods. If we therefore focus on goods trade in 2023, the United States accounted for just under 14.5% of world imports, and just over 8% of world exports. This means that out of the total world demand for goods being exported, the US buys one-seventh of these and supplies roughly one-twelfth of world exports. [...]

By |2025-02-03T17:20:17+00:003 February 2025|Blog, International Trade|0 Comments

Trump’s tariffs: How much should we be concerned and why?

With President Donald Trump’s second term, the debate over the use of tariffs is making headlines. On his first day in office Trump once again raised the prospect of the strategic use of these tariffs: he threatened to impose them unless partner countries (Mexico, Canada or the EU) introduced changes in their trade policies or made concessions in other domains (China with TikTok). This approach is likely to have profound implications for both the US as well as on the global economy for three key reasons. First, it will impact the already strained multilateral trading system. Second, there are direct consequences of US tariffs on individual partner countries. Third, there is the question of how effective such actions will be for the US, and that will also depend on the extent of any retaliatory measures. The UK-U.S. Trade Relationship Trump has threatened to impose sweeping tariffs—ranging from 10% to 20% on all trading partners, and up to 60% on Chinese imports. These statements clearly cover a multitude of possibilities, and this generates considerable uncertainty. The UK government appears hopeful that as the US does not have a trade deficit with the UK, that the UK may not be targeted. However, [...]

By , |2025-02-03T17:18:22+00:0024 January 2025|Blog, International Trade|0 Comments

Bridging food and energy crises: A global imperative in a warming world

The interconnected challenges of food insecurity and energy vulnerability are among the defining issues of the 21st century. Both are exacerbated by factors such as climate change, economic inequalities, and geopolitical instabilities, creating substantial strain on global systems. These impacts are felt most acutely in low-income nations, where access to basic necessities like food and energy often remains precarious. As the world navigates these challenges, a key question arises: how can food and energy security be ensured without compromising one for the other? Agriculture plays a vital role at the intersection of food production, energy consumption, and environmental sustainability. The sector accounts for almost 70% of global freshwater use and contributes over 20% of global greenhouse gas emissions.[1] Its reliance on fossil fuels—for mechanization, irrigation, transportation, and fertilizer production—has created a feedback loop that has the potential to exacerbate environmental degradation. This dependence also leaves agricultural systems vulnerable to energy price fluctuations, which could heighten the instability of food supplies. Increasingly, agriculture is being looked to for dual responsibilities: feeding a growing global population and supporting cleaner energy transitions, such as through biofuel production. However, this dual role can place food security and energy needs in competition, as biofuel crops [...]

By , |2025-01-16T10:03:02+00:0015 January 2025|Blog, International Trade|0 Comments

From ‘efficient’ to ‘resilient’ supply chains, and beyond

Global supply chains are in the midst of a fundamental paradigm shift. From the late 1970s to the 2000s, many countries embraced economic interdependence through trade liberalisation and promoted a free market economy with minimal government intervention. From the global financial crisis in 2008 to the Covid-19 pandemic (2020-2023), governments have been shifting towards a more managed approach to trade. This trend has become more pronounced, as the world’s power balance changes, due to the rise of China, emerging technologies impact security and economy, and the sustainable global agenda becomes important for the world’s future in the 21st century. Highly industrialised economies, which previously focussed on liberalising trade through the WTO and through free trade agreements (FTAs), are shifting to more neo mercantilist approaches. They are pursuing resilient supply chain policies and measures to support climate change, national security concerns and other non-trade objectives (e.g. human rights). On top of that, ‘America first’ protectionism under the incoming US Trump administration will cast new challenges to its trade partners - including its resilient supply chain allies. What are the implications for trade policy of this paradigm shift from efficient supply chains to resilient chains and the return of US unilateralism? Major [...]

By , |2024-12-18T12:44:51+00:0018 December 2024|Blog, International Trade|0 Comments

How is environmental protection across the UK safeguarded in post-Brexit legal contexts?

17 March 2023 Chloe Anthony is a Doctoral Researcher and Tutor at the University of Sussex Law School and Legal Researcher for the UK Environmental Law Association, Governance and Devolution Group. The UK Government and devolved administrations have committed to improving environmental protection post-Brexit. But how do the UK’s new trade agreements impact domestic environmental ambition? And are there legal safeguards against lowering levels of environmental protection? […]

By |2025-01-29T15:38:28+00:0017 March 2023|Blog, International Trade, UK- EU|0 Comments

The UK in a World of Green Industrial Strategies

13 March 2023 Emily Lydgate is Reader (Senior Associate Professor) in Environmental Law at University of Sussex School of Law, Politics and Sociology and Deputy Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory The UKTPO is pleased to re-publish this TaPP Network Workshop Summary, an output of a TaPP workshop in January with speakers Geraldo Vidigal (University of Amsterdam), Emily Lydgate (UKTPO/CITP), Ilaria Espa (USI/WTI), and Greg Messenger (TaPP/University of Bristol). Rather than a blog, this note summarises views of panel participants and the authors. It provides useful insights on the latest developments in this area and policy recommendations for the UK in navigating the new subsidies race between the US and the EU. […]

By |2025-01-29T15:39:36+00:0013 March 2023|Blog, International Trade|0 Comments

Economic Sanctions: No End to War in Ukraine

24 February 2023 Erika Szyszczak is a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Professor Emerita of Law at the University of Sussex. 24 February 2022: a date that shook the world as Russian aggression in Ukraine escalated. The fragility of a strategic democratic state was challenged, alongside exposing the vulnerability of interdependent global supply chains. Thus, it was not surprising that the early response to Russian aggression was in the form of economic sanctions led by the US, the UK and the EU. [1] […]

By |2025-01-29T15:40:17+00:0024 February 2023|Blog, International Trade|1 Comment

Is it really true that Brexit has had no harmful effects?

17 February 2023 L. Alan Winters is Co-Director of the Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy, Professor of Economics at University of Sussex Business School and Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. Given the recent discussions about future UK-EU relations and the review of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) after two years, I have started reading the Brexit literature again.  A recent paper – ‘What impact is Brexit having on the UK economy?’ by Graham Gudgin, Julian Jessop and Harry Western (GJW) from October 2022 argues there is no hard evidence of harm and that studies that claim to find harm are biased and/or incompetent! In this blog, I consider a few of their points in four areas. […]

By |2025-01-29T15:40:49+00:0017 February 2023|Blog, International Trade, UK- EU|3 Comments
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