All roads lead to Geneva: Insights from MC14

From 26 March to the early hours of 30 March 2026, ministers from WTO Members met in Yaoundé, Cameroon, for the 14th WTO Ministerial Conference. The goal was to review the past two years of negotiations and deliver outcomes on the MC14 agenda. Coined the Reform Ministerial, most discussions focused on the WTO's future amidst existing challenges and opportunities. And because it was held in an African country, the MC14 strongly emphasised development-related issues. However, the current geopolitical context affected expectations for MC14, resulting in broad and vague ministerial documents and declarations. WTO negotiations depend on what WTO Members can agree on by consensus. Conflicting interests and diverging interpretations of even cornerstone rules, such as the most-favoured-nation (MFN) principle, made significant progress difficult. MC 14 outcomes MC14 outcomes were reached in advance and only formalised in Yaoundé. WTO Members agreed to continue negotiating fisheries subsidies, with a goal to achieve a comprehensive Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies (AFS2) during MC15. Since AFS1 entered into force on 15 September 2025, Members have until September 2029 to adopt AFS2. Failure to do so will result in the current agreement being terminated (unless the General Council decides otherwise). Ministers also adopted two decisions on [...]

By |2026-03-31T14:30:54+01:0031 March 2026|Blog, International Trade|0 Comments
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Critical Minerals as an Observatory for Evolving Forms of Trade Cooperation

Critical minerals have captured the world’s attention as constituting a modern issue straddling matters of security, sovereignty, industry, and sustainability. Characterized by concentration in production and supply chains, they are imperative for energy transition industries and manufacturing of technology and defence equipment. For resource-hungry economies such as the United States, the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom, securing resilient and sustainable critical minerals supply chains is key to resolving anxieties about perceived Chinese weaponization of supply chains, and ensuring their economic security and national security. For resource-rich developing countries across Asia, Africa, and South America (e.g. Chile), the priority lies in not only securing fair prices, but also leveraging mineral endowments to support domestic industrialization, economic diversification, and escape primary commodity dependence. In result, we see the re-emergence of an age-old tension that has shaped both the foundations and evolution of global trade. Trade rules conceptualized during the interwar period and institutionalized in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) were grounded in securing access to raw materials and markets. The references to the “resources of the world” (Preamble, First Recital) and “equitable share of the international supply of products” (Article XX(j)), and rules prohibiting the use of quantitative restrictions (Article XI), also reflect this commitment to the free exchange [...]

By |2026-03-25T15:59:28+00:0025 March 2026|Blog, International Trade|0 Comments
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Next steps for Europe-India trade

Long-term talk of deeper Europe-India trade ties is finally accelerating as the mutual value becomes more obvious. This results from common struggles with superpowers US and China, as well as the recognition that the world’s most populous country needs help with its growth and Europe wants to be part of that story. Nonetheless, UK and EU Free Trade Agreements with India are best seen as part of an ongoing process rather than the final outcome. These FTAs are shallow, and there are numerous headwinds such as very different views of the world. This means all governments concerned will need to work hard to see significant economic benefits. The UK-India FTA is expected to come into force this year, with the EU-India equivalent probably at least a year behind. In both cases, their conclusion is still ahead of hopes, since negotiations only really began in 2022, even if building on previously suspended efforts. For India, the economic slowdown during COVID-19 provided an impetus. For the EU and the UK, a large Indian market behind tariff walls was incentive enough. However, it was the turbulence of Trump’s tariffs that provided the extra push to the conclusion. Details of the EU-India FTA are [...]

By , |2026-03-06T15:08:57+00:006 March 2026|Blog, International Trade|0 Comments
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Free Trade with MERCOSUR: An attractive opportunity for the UK?

After a negotiation process characterised by long periods of stagnations and disagreements[1], on the 17th of January, a Partnership Agreement was signed between the European Union and the four founding members of the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR, as known in Spanish): Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay[2]. This free trade agreement is meant to eliminate tariffs on 91% of EU exports to the South American bloc. This will be done over a 15-year phase-in period, paired with the removal of duties on 92% of MERCOSUR goods sold to the EU, within a 10-year timeframe. There is uncertainty regarding the ratification and implementation of this deal, due to a recent decision by the European Parliament to refer the agreement to the EU Court of Justice. Nevertheless, the economic size of the parties involved (estimated at 18% of the world’s GDP), along with the current context in which traditional large trading partners are becoming less reliable, has generated global interest. Such deal could constitute an example for other economies seeking to secure free trade with like-minded partners. It would allow them to diversify their trade portfolio and diminish their dependence on potentially problematic counterparts. If the deal goes ahead, EU exporters will secure [...]

By |2026-03-03T15:21:34+00:003 March 2026|Blog, International Trade, UK - Non EU|0 Comments
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Why does the India-EU FTA matter?

The India-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) hailed as the “mother of all deals” by both the EU and India, has been under negotiation since 2007. Since the text of the agreement is not available yet to fully verify this claim, it is worth evaluating what can be gleaned about the agreement from the documents released by both sides so far (the EU and India). The Highlights Goods The biggest immediate gain for both sides appear to be on goods, and both parties’ statements focus on these. The coverage appears significant. The FTA reduces tariffs on textiles, apparel, leather, footwear, chemicals, sports goods, toys, gems, and jewellery by India. For the EU, the gains lie in industrial goods, precision machinery, electrical equipment, aviation components, medical devices and other advanced tech. Beyond that, India reducing the high tariffs on cars (although subject to TRQ) is a significant win for the EU. Removing tariffs on chocolate and olive oil altogether, reducing tariffs on wine and spirits, and apples and pears is the cherry on top for the EU’s agriculture sector. Both sides targeted the low hanging fruits and pushed liberalisation of the more controversial goods for further down the road. Sensitive agricultural products [...]

By , |2026-02-18T14:27:39+00:0018 February 2026|Blog, International Trade|0 Comments
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A beginner’s guide to economic security: What it means for trade

The return of President Trump to the White House has brought renewed attention to the relationship between trade and national security. This situation raises questions about how governments should respond to increasing pressure to protect economic security while upholding an open and rules-based trading system. What is economic security? The concept of economic security has evolved over the years, reflecting shifting global and domestic circumstances since the end of World War II. Different governments frame economic security risks and threats in various ways, which means there is no universally accepted definition. However, in terms of values, it broadly refers to the absence of a threat of severe deprivation of economic welfare. Rather than providing a single, rigid definition, the EU and Japan have adopted a principle-based approach. This allows them to remain responsive to the risks generated by a rapidly evolving economic, technological, and geopolitical landscape. For example, Japan has established three core principles of economic security: self-sufficiency, indispensability, and safeguarding the rules-based international system. In terms of the instruments, it refers to a nation’s framework to maintain national autonomy and economic resilience against risks and threats. This includes strategies and policies that aim to protect fundamental economic functions, strategic [...]

By |2026-01-07T08:57:01+00:007 January 2026|Blog, International Trade|0 Comments
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A critical look at the UK’s Critical Minerals Strategy

The UK has now released its new Critical Minerals Strategy which outlines the prospective domestic and international policy actions that the UK Government will take, or will consider, in its pursuit of critical minerals security. By doing so, the UK joins a host of regions (the United States, EU, Canada, Australia, Japan, African countries) that have emphasised the central role of critical minerals in their trade policies, foreign policies, and green industrial strategies. These regions also published their respective strategic approaches to critical minerals recently. There is a powerful narrative in developed economies regarding the indispensability of critical minerals for national and economic security, seeking to strengthen supply chains and make them more resilient by reducing ‘import dependence’ imports and diversifying international sourcing. Concern over  Chinese, near-monopolistic involvement in critical minerals supply chains, which could be weaponised, provides the main geopolitical context for most of these actions. At the same time, mineral-rich countries, which range from those in the developing world (including African and Southeast Asian countries) to Australia and Canada, are looking to leverage their mineral wealth to secure their own mineral-led industrial futures while exploring the right policy mix to attract investments and provide secure partnerships to access-seeking [...]

By , |2025-12-09T11:47:28+00:009 December 2025|Blog, International Trade, UK - Non EU, UK- EU|0 Comments
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How to deliver a UK-EU “re-set” that works

Debates about deepening UK-EU relations, including in the current ‘re-set’ negotiations,  often focus on what will the UK gain versus what it must concede.  Yet, what constitutes a win or a loss for the UK is complex – and if Brexit has taught us anything, it’s that people have diverse, and sometimes polarized, views. This is why an effective re-set of UK-EU relations requires thinking about an aspect of negotiations that is often overlooked, or viewed as a technical consideration: how the UK implements the re-set domestically. More specifically, the UK needs to address the democratic deficit in UK treaty-making, and establish bespoke arrangements on EU regulatory alignment, now and in the future. The surest way to future-proof a closer relationship with the EU is to create a sense that the UK public, and particularly those affected by regulation, have a say in this decision. The importance of domestic implementation Despite its renowned tradition of direct democracy, Switzerland aligns its regulations with the EU across numerous sectors. For example, it recently concluded an EU-Swiss Common Food Safety Area, in which it agreed to align with EU food law across a wide range of areas. At first glance, this decision may [...]

By |2026-01-07T14:56:29+00:0026 November 2025|Blog, International Trade, UK- EU|0 Comments
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The EU–US Trade Deal: A $750 billion commitment caught between supply security and climate strategy

On 27 July 2025, the European Union (EU) announced a trade deal with the United States (US), averting a potential 30% tariff escalation.[1] Failure to conclude negotiations risked a transatlantic economic relationship valued at $2 trillion annually, which is nearly 6% of global trade in goods and services.[2]  In addition to tariffs, there is also agreement on EU purchases of energy products, and to work together on economic security, access to critical energy and investment facilitation.  This blog examines some of the implications of this announcement, reflecting how it could shift the EU's key trade relationships in energy and influence its progress toward achieving climate goals. The terms of the deal The deal sets a 15% base tariff on most EU exports to the US, effectively halving the previously threatened tariff rate. The agreed 15% baseline tariff is understood to be applied on an inclusive basis and not as an additive layer to pre-existing rates. Both sides appear to have agreed on zero-for-zero tariffs for a number of strategic products. This includes all aircraft and component parts, certain chemicals, certain generics, semiconductor equipment, certain agricultural products, natural resources, and critical raw materials. Officials also confirmed that work will continue to [...]

By , |2025-08-12T15:52:38+01:0012 August 2025|Blog, International Trade|0 Comments
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The Long Game beyond tariffs

The global economy faces a roller-coaster ride every time Mr. Trump is in the White House. Last time, a focus on controlling China’s growing economic power meant that the rest of the world narrowly escaped the wrath of the United States executive, with some tariffs on some sectors. This time around, things are quite starkly different: it is difficult to even know who constitutes a friend or a foe. All trading partners are now threatened with high horizontal tariffs in the name of “reciprocity”. Adding to this list of unknowns is the uncertainty around non-tariff policies, the uncertain implementation of non-binding deals, and the nature of an elusive collective response. First, tariff and non-tariff policies. Trump appears focused on tariffs, using import tariff threats to secure various trade concessions and other commitments. Unsurprisingly, the prevailing vexation of the rest of the world is regarding the higher tariffs on their exports to the US. There will certainly be losers both in the US and its trading partners, due to the shocks of tariff hikes. The hope is for a predictable and stable trading environment to be restored soon. However, while we worry about tariff hikes and policy uncertainty, we should not [...]

By |2025-08-01T13:02:51+01:001 August 2025|Blog, International Trade, UK - Non EU|0 Comments
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