UK- EU

Determining goods at risk

14 January 2020 Dr Anna Jerzewska is a independent customs and trade consultant, an independent advisor with the UN International Trade Centre and also a trade policy and customs consultant for the British Chambers of Commerce. The UK is due to leave the EU on the 31st January 2020. A new stage of the Brexit process is set to begin – the transition period and negotiations of the future relationship with the EU. At the same time, work on the Northern Irish border arrangements is far from over. A newly established Joint Committee will negotiate the practicalities of implementing the Withdrawal Agreement. Under the Withdrawal Agreement (“WA”), Northern Ireland would stay in the UK’s customs territory but would at the same time continue applying EU’s customs legislation, tariffs, quotas and, partially, EU Single Market rules. This will avoid a border on the island of Ireland but will mean a de facto customs and regulatory border in the Irish Sea. As a result of this dual status, goods shipped from Great Britain (“GB”) to Northern Ireland (“NI”) will be subject to EU tariffs if they are “at risk of subsequently being moved into the Union, whether by itself or forming part [...]

By Nick Phipps|2020-01-14T09:55:38+00:0014 January 2020|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|0 Comments

Parties’ election promises on trade are incoherent and unachievable

11 December 2019 In the lead up to the General Election, we have analysed the manifestos of the five main political parties and what they imply for future UK trade. Overall, we find that the manifestos in this General Election are incoherent and vague on trade and contain several unachievable targets. […]

By Nick Phipps|2019-12-11T10:01:33+00:0011 December 2019|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|1 Comment

EU tariffs could cover 75% of imports of goods into Northern Ireland

9 December 2019 L. Alan Winters CB is Professor of Economics and Director of the Observatory. Our analysis finds that under the UK-EU Protocol on Northern Ireland, about 75% of Northern Ireland’s imports of goods from other locations, including Great Britain, would be subject to EU tariffs on their arrival in Northern Ireland. This is not easily reconciled with the government’s assertion that Northern Ireland remains within the UK customs territory. […]

By Nick Phipps|2019-12-09T09:09:13+00:009 December 2019|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|5 Comments

Get Brexit done: An oven-ready Brexit?

4 December 2019 L. Alan Winters CB is Professor of Economics and Director of the Observatory. The Prime Minister seems to think that an ‘oven-ready’ Brexit deal is the best that we can choose from the menu of policy alternatives. It sounds neither appetising nor nourishing, but if it really were quick and easy, maybe it would be worth it. But it’s not quick or easy: ‘oven-ready’ is just not true. […]

By Nick Phipps|2019-12-04T13:21:18+00:004 December 2019|UK- EU|2 Comments

Border posts at Gretna Green? Loosening food safety legislation could put Union under serious strain

5 November 2019 Border posts could be required at Gretna Green and the Severn Bridge in response to widening regional standards in food safety that could open up after Brexit, our new Briefing Paper warns. Our analysis warns of the potential for very different regulatory approaches between the UK Government and devolved authorities towards controversial food practices including chlorinated chicken, GM crops and pesticides. The existence of such discrepancies would likely have a significant and detrimental impact on the UK’s ability to strike trade deals, analysis by Dr Emily Lydgate, Chloe Anthony and Prof Erik Millstone has warned. […]

By Nick Phipps|2019-11-05T10:02:11+00:005 November 2019|UK- EU|3 Comments

Better than the status quo for Northern Ireland? Not quite so simple

24 October 2019 Michael Gasiorek is Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. There has been some discussion that the unique arrangements outlined in the Protocol on Northern Ireland within the Withdrawal Agreement between the UK and the EU mean that Northern Ireland may get the best of both worlds – tariff-free access to both the EU Single Market and the UK market. This is because Northern Ireland will remain in the UK’s customs territory, however, for trade between Northern Ireland and the EU (and therefore the Republic of Ireland) the EU’s Union Customs Code will apply, with no tariffs or other restrictions. Northern Ireland will also remain within the EU’s single market for agriculture and manufactured goods. The aim of this blog is to think through this carefully. […]

By Nick Phipps|2019-10-24T16:56:46+01:0024 October 2019|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|4 Comments

The grand illusion

17 October 2019 Alasdair Smith is an Emeritus Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and is a member of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. Most of us may not yet have found the time to read and absorb the text of the new Brexit withdrawal agreement, but we can read the texts which “a Number 10 source”, whom we non-journalists are allowed to call Dominic Cummings, has sent to journalists. These texts deserve critical scrutiny. […]

By Nick Phipps|2019-10-17T16:06:46+01:0017 October 2019|UK- EU|3 Comments

The UK’s ‘No Deal’ Tariffs: An Update

16 October 2019 Julia Magntorn Garrett is a Research Officer in Economics at the University of Sussex and Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. In March 2019, Theresa May’s Government published a set of ‘No deal’ tariffs, designed to apply for up to 12 months in the event that the UK left the EU without a deal. The UKTPO described them in a blog and a Briefing Paper. On October 8, the new Government published an updated ‘No deal’ tariff schedule. This blog outlines the main changes, and recalculates various statistics, on the basis of the new tariff proposal. […]

By Nick Phipps|2019-10-16T11:05:01+01:0016 October 2019|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|0 Comments

Economic realities of Brexit for firms and people in Northern Ireland

14 October 2019 Michael Gasiorek is Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. With the current state of negotiations between the UK and the EU it is easy to see why attention is focussed on the politics of a possible agreement. The contentious issue is, of course, that of the Irish border. However, the focus on the politics means that there has been little discussion of the economic impacts and specifically of the vulnerability of the Northern Irish economy to the decisions being made. […]

By Nick Phipps|2019-10-14T11:48:56+01:0014 October 2019|UK- EU|1 Comment

Johnson’s Brexit proposal is riddled with problems

03 October 2019 L. Alan Winters CB is Professor of Economics and Director of the Observatory. At last, a chink of clarity. Yesterday’s proposal for the treatment of the Irish economy admits, more or less for the first time officially, that there are trade-offs to Brexit. Suddenly the laws of political physics are restored. You cannot both have your cake and eat it. The trade-off that has at last dawned on Boris Johnson is that if you want the whole of the UK to choose its own tariffs on goods, a customs border in Ireland is inevitable. And if you want Britain to be able to set its own regulations, then you need a border in the Irish Sea. […]

By Nick Phipps|2019-10-03T11:41:09+01:003 October 2019|UK- EU|2 Comments

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