COVID-19 will reinforce the Brexit shock

27 May 2020 L. Alan Winters CB is Professor of Economics and Director of the UKTPO. Mattia Di Ubaldo is a Research Fellow in the Economics of European Trade Policies, and Palitha Konara is a Senior Lecturer in International Business at the University of Sussex. Both are Fellows of the UKTPO.  COVID-19 and Brexit may appear as independent shocks but, in fact, they are interrelated. First, as the UKTPO and many others have argued, because COVID has disrupted the preparation for and conduct of negotiations on the future UK-EU trading arrangements, the UK government should ask for an extension to the transition period. This would allow the UK and EU to work out details of mutual cooperation that will be beneficial on both sides of the channel. […]

By |2020-05-27T12:47:07+01:0027 May 2020|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|0 Comments

Reflections on the UK Global Tariff: good in principle, but perhaps not for relations with the EU

21 May 2020 Michael Gasiorek is Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and Julia Magntorn Garrett is a Research Officer in Economics at the University of Sussex. Both are Fellows of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. Let’s start at the very beginning… Suppose a country was (more or less) starting from scratch with its trade policy, and anticipated wanting to sign future trade agreements with other countries. What might you want from that country’s tariff structure? At the end of the day it is important to remember that tariffs are discriminatory taxes (i.e. they discriminate against foreign suppliers) which reduce competition, distort markets and lower national welfare. So, aiming to get to low (zero) tariffs is a good objective. But there may also be some other considerations. Here are some guidelines: […]

By |2020-05-21T15:06:50+01:0021 May 2020|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|0 Comments

A global agreement to end disruption of Coronavirus medical supplies

1 May 2020 An international agreement on vital medical goods that keeps import restrictions low and constrains the use of export bans could help ensure all countries have sufficient supplies for the fight against Coronavirus, our new briefing paper proposes. According to the report, which was produced in collaboration with Global Trade Alert, a global bargain where exporting nations give assurances medical supplies will not be cut off arbitrarily and importing governments agree not to re-introduce their import restrictions would remove disruption and uncertainty around the availability of life-saving goods. […]

By |2020-05-01T10:52:58+01:001 May 2020|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|0 Comments

Supermarket sweep: demand, supply and border delays

16 April 2020 Peter Holmes is a Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex and Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. At the time of writing the UK is seeing food supplies returning to normal. It is worth asking what the experience of the first three weeks of lockdown can tell us about the causes of the apparent shortages and the implications for the future. There is a hope that now everyone’s spare rooms are full of toilet rolls and cans of beans and the supermarkets are fuller, stocks will get back to normal. But it may not be quite as simple. Are shortages just due to excessive stockpiling or real supply constraints? And if the latter how does trade fit in? […]

By |2020-04-15T17:06:12+01:0015 April 2020|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|1 Comment

The UK Government’s Global Tariff proposal – a virtual discussion

31 March 2020 Julia Magntorn Garrett is a Research Officer in Economics at the University of Sussex and Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory.  On Wednesday 18 March, the UKTPO published a Briefing Paper in response to the UK Government’s consultation on the UK’s future applied Most Favoured Nation tariff. In lieu of a public launch event, which had to be cancelled due to coronavirus, this blog outlines some excellent feedback we have already received and aims to open up the issue for further discussion. […]

By |2020-03-31T10:21:24+01:0031 March 2020|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|4 Comments

The economic impact of COVID-19 on Airlines: why the Chancellor was right to refuse further government financial assistance

30 March 2020  Guest Blog by Ian Clarke, CEO of Excalibur Global Managed Services Ltd. Following on from the previous blog by Erika Szyszczak on the new temporary adaptation of EU state aid rules in the light of the COVID-19 economic crisis, this blog discusses why the UK should take a cautionary approach to special aid being directed to the aviation sector. […]

By |2020-03-30T12:51:37+01:0030 March 2020|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|0 Comments

COVID-19 and two key supply-chains

24 March 2020 Guest blog by Dr Sam Roscoe, Senior Lecturer in Operations Management and Research Leader for the Supply Chain 4.0 Hub at the University of Sussex. COVID-19 has exposed a number of fundamental issues in grocery and pharmaceutical supply chains.  The grocery sector has been particularly hard hit because of its ‘lean’ just-in-time delivery supply chain model, panic buying and labour shortages. Over the past two decades, the UK grocery sector has adopted the lean, just-in-time, supply chain model from the automotive sector. This rapid replenishment model focuses on minimizing inventory and delivering new products to store shelves as soon as a product is purchased at the tills. The advantages of this system are lower inventory carrying costs, reduced product handling and smaller store rooms. The disadvantage, as seen today, is that any unforeseen surge in demand makes it difficult for stores to quickly replenish shelves as inventory is not readily at hand. […]

By |2020-03-24T13:59:19+00:0024 March 2020|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|4 Comments

Export-platform FDI and Brexit Uncertainty

14 February 2020 Nicolo Tamberi is a Research Assistant in Economics for the UK Trade Policy Observatory.  An important question arising from the UK’s decision to leave the EU is around the impact on foreign direct investment (FDI) in the country, with many academics and commentators suggesting that exiting the EU may accelerate the decline of British manufacturing. Car manufacturers such as Honda and Toyota came to the UK in the 1980s with the aim of selling to the whole European market. While the car industry is often used as an example, other industries appear to be affected by uncertainty as well. Hiroaki Nakanishi, chairman of the board of Hitachi, wrote in the Financial Times: ‘We invested in [the UK] as the best base for access to the entire EU market’. The Japanese government’s letter to the United Kingdom clearly stated that for Japanese firms in the UK frictionless access to the European market is vital for their business. […]

By |2020-02-14T09:46:49+00:0014 February 2020|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|0 Comments

US is No.1 country for UK small businesses to trade with over next three years

22 January 2020 With the UK set to embark on a new era of global trade negotiations for the first time in living memory, the importance of minimising friction in trade and having zero tariffs and quotas is more critical than ever to small businesses across the UK. In conjunction with the Federation of Small Businesses, we have produced a new major report (see summary slides) highlighting what small businesses need to capitalise upon from Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). […]

By |2020-01-22T12:59:21+00:0022 January 2020|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|0 Comments
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