Critical Minerals as an Observatory for Evolving Forms of Trade Cooperation

Critical minerals have captured the world’s attention as constituting a modern issue straddling matters of security, sovereignty, industry, and sustainability. Characterized by concentration in production and supply chains, they are imperative for energy transition industries and manufacturing of technology and defence equipment. For resource-hungry economies such as the United States, the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom, securing resilient and sustainable critical minerals supply chains is key to resolving anxieties about perceived Chinese weaponization of supply chains, and ensuring their economic security and national security. For resource-rich developing countries across Asia, Africa, and South America (e.g. Chile), the priority lies in not only securing fair prices, but also leveraging mineral endowments to support domestic industrialization, economic diversification, and escape primary commodity dependence. In result, we see the re-emergence of an age-old tension that has shaped both the foundations and evolution of global trade. Trade rules conceptualized during the interwar period and institutionalized in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) were grounded in securing access to raw materials and markets. The references to the “resources of the world” (Preamble, First Recital) and “equitable share of the international supply of products” (Article XX(j)), and rules prohibiting the use of quantitative restrictions (Article XI), also reflect this commitment to the free exchange [...]

By |2026-03-25T15:59:28+00:0025 March 2026|Blog, International Trade|0 Comments

Making trade work for development: Early signs suggest UK’s new trade scheme is working

In the global debate about tariffs, one thing is clear: trade can be critical to making economies grow and societies more resilient. As part of its commitment to international development, the United Kingdom introduced the Developing Countries Trading Scheme (DCTS) in 2023 to make it easier and cheaper for developing countries to export to the UK. The objective is to stimulate trade from beneficiary countries, promote growth, support economic transformation and help reduce poverty. Now, after two years, the UK government has commissioned independent research to determine if the new trading scheme is indeed encouraging more trade and how it can benefit people in developing countries. Positive early findings The research by the UK’s new Trade and Development, Evidence and Innovation Programme (E&I) has found early, positive signs that the DCTS is succeeding in encouraging developing countries to make greater use of trade preferences. Through the DCTS, which is offered unilaterally by the UK, 65 developing countries can benefit from lower tariffs than countries that are outside the scheme and cannot use other UK trade agreements. So the DCTS can make the goods imported from member countries more competitive. But lower tariffs (or trade preferences) are subject to conditions, which [...]

Alignment with limits and safeguards: EFRA’s key recommendations for a UK-EU SPS Agreement

The House of Commons Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee (EFRA) has recently published a report responding to the political commitment made at the May 2025 UK–EU Summit to negotiate a common sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) area, with an ambition to conclude negotiations by early 2027. Entitled ‘UK–EU agritrade: making an SPS agreement work’, the report sets out recommendations aimed at ensuring that any future SPS framework is economically beneficial, constitutionally accountable and operationally workable. At its core, the report accepts the economic case for closer regulatory cooperation with the European Union. It recognises the potential benefits of reducing border friction, supporting supply chain resilience and strengthening food security. However, it does not endorse alignment without qualification. Rather, the Committee advances what might be described as an approach of alignment, with limits and safeguards: supporting the negotiation of a common SPS area while seeking targeted exemptions in sensitive areas; calling for robust parliamentary oversight; and insisting on mechanisms to ensure that UK scientific evidence and domestic policy choices are properly reflected in future regulatory developments. Crucially, as a precondition for achieving these safeguards, the Committee urges that the scope of the negotiations is clearly defined and published at an early [...]

By |2026-02-20T17:06:11+00:0020 February 2026|Blog, UK- EU|0 Comments

The EU–US Trade Deal: A $750 billion commitment caught between supply security and climate strategy

On 27 July 2025, the European Union (EU) announced a trade deal with the United States (US), averting a potential 30% tariff escalation.[1] Failure to conclude negotiations risked a transatlantic economic relationship valued at $2 trillion annually, which is nearly 6% of global trade in goods and services.[2]  In addition to tariffs, there is also agreement on EU purchases of energy products, and to work together on economic security, access to critical energy and investment facilitation.  This blog examines some of the implications of this announcement, reflecting how it could shift the EU's key trade relationships in energy and influence its progress toward achieving climate goals. The terms of the deal The deal sets a 15% base tariff on most EU exports to the US, effectively halving the previously threatened tariff rate. The agreed 15% baseline tariff is understood to be applied on an inclusive basis and not as an additive layer to pre-existing rates. Both sides appear to have agreed on zero-for-zero tariffs for a number of strategic products. This includes all aircraft and component parts, certain chemicals, certain generics, semiconductor equipment, certain agricultural products, natural resources, and critical raw materials. Officials also confirmed that work will continue to [...]

By , |2025-08-12T15:52:38+01:0012 August 2025|Blog, International Trade|0 Comments

Brace for impact: Tougher rules ahead for third country food exports to the EU

On 19 February 2025, the European Commission unveiled its long-term strategy for farming and the agri-food sector with the publication of Vision for Agriculture and Food: Shaping Together an Attractive Farming and Agri-Food Sector for Future Generations. The document outlines the priorities and approaches that will shape EU policy initiatives to enhance the sector’s competitiveness and attractiveness—both now and through 2040. Framing its strategy within the context of recent widespread farmer protests and key policy recommendations for the future direction of the EU that came out from the Draghi report on EU competitiveness, Letta’s report on the Future of the EU Single Market, Niinistö’s report on Europe’s civil and military preparedness and readiness, as well as the Strategic Dialogue on the Future of EU Agriculture, the Commission underscores the urgent need for structural reforms. Quoting Draghi’s assertion that in a world of geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions, “dependencies are becoming vulnerabilities,” the Vision positions food security and food sovereignty as core elements of the EU’s broader strategy for security, competitiveness, and sustainability. The Vision also reinforces the EU’s long-standing position that trade should not come at the expense of food safety, environmental protection, or animal welfare. It does so while acknowledging [...]

By |2025-02-24T10:24:59+00:0021 February 2025|Blog, International Trade, UK- EU|0 Comments

The UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) one year on: trade in goods

11 February 2022 Nicolo Tamberi is Research Officer in Economics at the University of Sussex and Fellow of UKTPO. With trade data for the full year 2021 just released, we update our earlier estimates of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement’s impact on bilateral trade between the UK and the EU for the first year of the agreement. […]

By |2025-07-18T09:48:44+01:0011 February 2022|UK- EU|0 Comments

Tariff-free trade with the EU: not so PUR and simple

29 July 2021 Yohannes Ayele is Research Fellow in the Economics of Brexit at the University of Sussex and Fellow of the UKTPO. Since 1 January 2021, the UK’s trading relationship with its biggest and closest trading partner—the EU—has been governed by the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). Under the TCA, UK exports to the EU face zero-tariff and zero-quota. However, to claim zero tariffs, exporters must meet the rules of origin requirements and be able to provide proof of origin. Where exporters do not meet the requirements they end up paying the tariff. Even those exporters that can meet the rules of origin requirement, because of the cost of the paperwork and requirements for proof of origin needed to claim the zero tariff, they may instead choose to pay the tariff. The latter is more likely where the tariff preference margin (i.e., the difference between MFN non-zero tariff and the zero-tariff under TCA) is very low. These problems— the rules of origin requirements and costs associated to claim zero-tariff—could be particularly challenging for smaller companies. Therefore, in practice, firms may end up paying tariffs despite the zero-tariff and zero-quota deal under the TCA. […]

By |2025-07-18T09:59:00+01:0029 July 2021|UK- EU|0 Comments

UK-EU trade and the TCA update: results up to April 2021

23 July 2021 Nicolo Tamberi is Research Officer in Economics at the University of Sussex and a fellow of the UKTPO. We have updated our estimates of the effects of the introduction of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) on UK-EU trade in 2021 through to April. The methodology used was described in the UKTPO briefing paper 57 (see the appendix for details). We find that over the period January-April 2021, the TCA reduced UK exports to the EU by 18.7% and imports from the EU by 25.8% compared to the scenario in which the UK did not leave the EU. […]

By |2025-07-18T09:59:29+01:0023 July 2021|UK- EU|2 Comments

Two months in: the impact of Brexit on UK trade

20 April 2021. Michael Gasiorek is Professor of Economics and Director of the UKTPO. Yohannes Ayele is Research Fellow in the Economics of Brexit at the University of Sussex and Fellow of the UKTPO. A decline in trade with the EU was expected following the coming into force of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement between the UK and the EU on the 1st of January. Nevertheless, when the UK January trade figures were released in early March, almost unanimously commentators were surprised by the extent of the decline. We now have the data for February and so in this blog we update the numbers and discuss their significance. […]

By , |2025-07-18T10:05:10+01:0020 April 2021|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|17 Comments

A Fine Kettle of Fish

23 March 2021 Michael Gasiorek is Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory at the University of Sussex. Suzannah Walmsley is Principal Consultant and Fisheries and Aquaculture Business Development Manager at ABPmer. Last week the UK’s trade data for January 2021 came out and the evidence was pretty striking. It showed a dramatic decline in UK exports and imports in January, and particularly so with the EU. Now some of this will have been driven by Covid-related lockdown restrictions, and some of the dramatic fall in trade with the EU itself may have been driven by firms’ stockpiling in November and December to protect themselves against the much-publicised potential border difficulties arising from the UK’s exit from the EU and the end of the transition period. In this blog we dig a bit deeper into those numbers and focus just on fisheries. […]

By , |2025-07-18T10:09:17+01:0023 March 2021|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|1 Comment
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