Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland Protocol Bill: is it all just a ploy?

14 June 2022 Mattia Di Ubaldo is a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and a Research Fellow in Economics at the University of Sussex Business School. Michael Gasiorek is Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex Business School. The UK Government has published its bill on the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP), making a clear move to try to force changes in the arrangements disciplining the economic regime applying to the portion of the UK that has remained in the EU Single Market post-Brexit. The points of strongest contention between the UK Government and the EU concern the custom and regulatory checks applying to trade flowing from Great Britain to Northern Ireland together with a list of additional issues resulting from Northern Ireland remaining part of the EU Single Market territory: the regulatory regime applying to firms in Northern Ireland, rules on VAT, the use of state subsidies, and the role of the European Court of Justice in overseeing the NIP. […]

By Nick Phipps|2022-06-14T14:38:23+01:0014 June 2022|UK- EU, Uncategorised|0 Comments

Northern Ireland trade patterns and the row over the Protocol

31 May 2022 Ruby Acquah and Mattia Di Ubaldo are Fellows of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and Research Fellows in Economics at the University of Sussex Business School Tensions over the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) have intensified as the UK Government (henceforth HMG) announced plans to introduce legislation that would enable it to disapply parts of the Protocol. The UK has often demanded the re-negotiation of the NIP due to its economic costs, and a too strict application by the EU. Recently, Assembly elections in Northern Ireland escalated the urgency of resolving the issue, as the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) is currently refusing, as part of its protest against the NIP, to participate in the power-sharing executive. […]

By Nick Phipps|2022-05-31T10:42:43+01:0031 May 2022|UK- EU|0 Comments

Honesty is such a lonely word…

22 July 2021 Michael Gasiorek is Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO) at the University of Sussex. L. Alan Winters is Professor of Economics and Founding Director of the UKTPO. The UK Government’s command paper on Northern Ireland published yesterday (21 July 2021) is significant in four regards. First, because it explicitly recognises – at length – that the Protocol is not working (at least not for the UK) and needs to be modified in form or in implementation. This is almost certainly correct. […]

By Nick Phipps|2021-07-22T10:41:50+01:0022 July 2021|UK- EU|100 Comments

Companies should prepare for increased costs, bureaucracy and border checks for their Northern Ireland business

05 June 2020 Businesses should expect more paperwork, bureaucracy and additional costs on trade between Northern Ireland and Great Britain when the transition period ends in seven months’ time. The UK’s recently published Command Paper highlights significant differences between the UK and the EU and does not fully address the challenges which come from the special situation around that border, warns our latest Briefing Paper – The unresolved difficulties of the Northern Ireland Protocol – co-authored by Prof Michael Gasiorek and Dr Anna Jerzewska. The paper highlights several areas where the UK’s interpretation of what was previously agreed appears to differ from the EU’s position. […]

By Nick Phipps|2020-06-05T10:00:00+01:005 June 2020|UK- EU|0 Comments

Reflections on the UK Global Tariff: good in principle, but perhaps not for relations with the EU

21 May 2020 Michael Gasiorek is Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and Julia Magntorn Garrett is a Research Officer in Economics at the University of Sussex. Both are Fellows of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. Let’s start at the very beginning… Suppose a country was (more or less) starting from scratch with its trade policy, and anticipated wanting to sign future trade agreements with other countries. What might you want from that country’s tariff structure? At the end of the day it is important to remember that tariffs are discriminatory taxes (i.e. they discriminate against foreign suppliers) which reduce competition, distort markets and lower national welfare. So, aiming to get to low (zero) tariffs is a good objective. But there may also be some other considerations. Here are some guidelines: […]

By Nick Phipps|2020-05-21T15:06:50+01:0021 May 2020|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|0 Comments

The Unfinished Business of the Northern Ireland Protocol

7 May 2020 Dr Anna Jerzewska is an independent customs and trade consultant, and Associate Fellow of the UKTPO. While the world battles the Covid-19 pandemic, the UK Government’s decision not to request an extension to the transition period means that the UK and the EU have only eight months until 31st December 2020 to complete the talks on the future trading relationship. If a trade deal is not agreed by 1 January 2021 the Northern Ireland Protocol will take effect. The Protocol, which forms part of the Withdrawal Agreement, determines how the Irish border will work in the absence of agreement at the end of the transition period. A Joint Committee, a body established within the Withdrawal Agreement, is charged with, amongst other things, deciding how the Protocol will be implemented. The deadline for making these decisions is therefore fast approaching. […]

By Nick Phipps|2020-05-07T10:52:43+01:007 May 2020|UK- EU|3 Comments

EU tariffs could cover 75% of imports of goods into Northern Ireland

9 December 2019 L. Alan Winters CB is Professor of Economics and Director of the Observatory. Our analysis finds that under the UK-EU Protocol on Northern Ireland, about 75% of Northern Ireland’s imports of goods from other locations, including Great Britain, would be subject to EU tariffs on their arrival in Northern Ireland. This is not easily reconciled with the government’s assertion that Northern Ireland remains within the UK customs territory. […]

By Nick Phipps|2019-12-09T09:09:13+00:009 December 2019|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|5 Comments

Better than the status quo for Northern Ireland? Not quite so simple

24 October 2019 Michael Gasiorek is Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. There has been some discussion that the unique arrangements outlined in the Protocol on Northern Ireland within the Withdrawal Agreement between the UK and the EU mean that Northern Ireland may get the best of both worlds – tariff-free access to both the EU Single Market and the UK market. This is because Northern Ireland will remain in the UK’s customs territory, however, for trade between Northern Ireland and the EU (and therefore the Republic of Ireland) the EU’s Union Customs Code will apply, with no tariffs or other restrictions. Northern Ireland will also remain within the EU’s single market for agriculture and manufactured goods. The aim of this blog is to think through this carefully. […]

By Nick Phipps|2019-10-24T16:56:46+01:0024 October 2019|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|4 Comments

Economic realities of Brexit for firms and people in Northern Ireland

14 October 2019 Michael Gasiorek is Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and a Fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. With the current state of negotiations between the UK and the EU it is easy to see why attention is focussed on the politics of a possible agreement. The contentious issue is, of course, that of the Irish border. However, the focus on the politics means that there has been little discussion of the economic impacts and specifically of the vulnerability of the Northern Irish economy to the decisions being made. […]

By Nick Phipps|2019-10-14T11:48:56+01:0014 October 2019|UK- EU|1 Comment

The UK’s post-Brexit Trade Relationship with the European Union: Through a glass, darkly

10 December 2018 L. Alan Winters CB, Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory The Brexit Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration are being presented as a means to end the uncertainty about the UK’s future relationship with Europe. But in an explainer for the ESRC’s UK in a Changing Europe, Professor L Alan Winters argues that this is not the case. Uncertainty will continue regardless of what happens to the Withdrawal Agreement. Briefly, he argues that, if the Withdrawal Agreement is approved by Parliament and the EU: The backstop it mandates requires a customs union between the UK and the EU and that most EU regulations for goods will apply in Northern Ireland. However, there is no regulatory alignment between the rest of the UK and the EU and so, if the backstop came into operation, there would be border formalities both in the Irish Sea and as UK goods entered the EU via any other route. Negotiating a trade agreement with the EU will take a lot longer than the 21 months allowed for it in the Withdrawal Agreement, not least because every EU member state has a veto over trade agreements. The Political Declaration [...]

By Nick Phipps|2018-12-10T16:39:45+00:0010 December 2018|UK- EU|0 Comments

Partners