Regions

The UK Regional Trade in Goods Statistics (RTS)

29 July 2021 Yohannes Ayele is Research Fellow in the Economics of Brexit at the University of Sussex and Fellow of the UKTPO. Since 1 January 2021, the UK’s trading relationship with its biggest and closest trading partner—the EU—has been governed by the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). Although the TCA is a zero-tariff and quota-free trade deal, several reports indicate that it is having a negative impact on the UK’s trade with the EU (see, 1, 2, and 3). While looking at the aggregate effect of the TCA on the UK trade is important, such analysis also misses the substantial differential impact of the TCA across the UK’s devolved administrations and regions. Regions in the same country can be affected differently by new trade barriers because of the difference in industrial production structure and, second, the differential exposure of industries to trade policy changes. In this blog, we provide a brief report on how the UK’s regional trade with the EU fared in the first quarter since the introduction of the TCA. […]

By Nick Phipps|2021-07-29T09:02:00+01:0029 July 2021|UK- EU|1 Comment

The case for more flexibility in post-Brexit immigration rules

14 July 2020 Alasdair Smith is an Emeritus Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex and is a member of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. There were no surprises in yesterday’s government announcement of the post-Brexit ‘points-based’ immigration rules (except for those who thought that a provision for health and care might actually cover social care workers). The government’s stated objectives are “flexibility and control over our borders”. However, an essential feature of the points-based scheme is that it is not actually operated at the border, but in the jobs market through the rules that non-UK employees must satisfy in order to take up a job offer in the UK. EU citizens will continue to have visa-free entry to the UK: the change for them is in their right to take up employment in the UK. (In all of this, Irish citizens are treated the same as UK citizens, and indeed EU citizens in Ireland can enter the UK without passport checks.) […]

By Nick Phipps|2020-07-14T13:54:53+01:0014 July 2020|UK- EU|1 Comment

Brexit will negatively affect all regions of the UK, but the North East is most vulnerable

26 March 2018 Ilona Serwicka is Research Fellow in the economics of Brexit at the UKTPO The UK economy will be worse off after Brexit regardless of the terms of departure from the EU: this is (with a small number of exceptions) a consensus reached by previous analyses of the impact of Brexit. Anything that differs from the status quo of EU membership – ranging from a ‘soft’ Brexit that involves staying within the Customs Union and/or the Single Market to a ‘hard’ scenario of leaving the EU with no deal – will hurt growth prospects for the UK economy. […]

By Nick Phipps|2018-03-26T11:55:36+01:0026 March 2018|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|4 Comments

Leave-voting regions are “most exposed” to Brexit services shock

11 January 2018 Dr Ingo Borchert is Lecturer in Economics and a fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. Nicolo Tamberi is a Research Assistant in Economics for the Observatory The North East and West Midlands are the most reliant on the European market, sending around half of their services exports to the EU. Sources: Office for National Statistics (2017a); and authors’ calculations. Two of the biggest Brexit-voting regions would be hit hardest by a potential fall in services exports upon leaving the EU, new analysis suggests. […]

By Nick Phipps|2018-01-11T08:00:03+00:0011 January 2018|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|4 Comments

The EU referendum – one year on, and back at square one?

23 June 2017 L. Alan Winters CB, Professor of Economics and Director of UKTPO and Ilona Serwicka, Research Fellow at UKTPO One year ago the British people voted to leave the EU. Out of 33.5 million votes cast, 51.9 per cent were for ‘leave’, albeit in the absence of any statement about what ‘leaving’ might mean. The government is still vague about what the UK’s post-Brexit trade policy should be – even after triggering the formal leave process – but the general election has pressured Theresa May to soften her Brexit stance. Even though Brexit negotiations are now formally under way, the options suddenly again seem wide open for debate. In terms of options the UK is back at square one, but following a year’s analysis, it is now clearer what these options amount to. Over the year, the UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO) has discussed many of the options and this note draws on some of that analysis to try to light the path forward. […]

By Nick Phipps|2017-06-23T09:23:51+01:0023 June 2017|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|1 Comment

South East hopes for tourism boom but fears border headache post Brexit

5 June 2017 Brexit could lead to a boom in tourism and high-end exports in the South East, according to a consultation of locals by trade experts at the University of Sussex. However, there is growing concern about the logistical headache of potentially increased customs and immigration checks at South-East airports, seaports and the Channel Tunnel, the process found. With the UK General Election only a week away, and with Brexit such an important issue for this election campaign, economists and lawyers from the UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO) based at the University of Sussex have been exploring the key issues for post-Brexit trade policy for the South-East region. […]

By Nick Phipps|2017-06-05T11:31:27+01:005 June 2017|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|0 Comments

‘With or without EU’ – priorities for the UK’s four trading nations post Brexit

29 March 2017 New analysis shows that the nations of the UK are exposed to trade with the EU in quite different ways. If the UK leaves the EU without a trade deal the effects across regions will be quite different and this should therefore influence our trading priorities Our Fellows have analysed trade data to examine the regional and sectoral impact of Brexit as well as the overall national impact. Their findings, portrayed in a short video animation show that choosing trade priorities on the basis of aggregate UK data does not take into account the fact that the nations within the UK are exposed to trade with the EU in different ways. https://youtu.be/3uyf9sU__XQ […]

By Nick Phipps|2017-03-29T13:27:19+01:0029 March 2017|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|0 Comments

Brexit and the regions: a lighter shade of dark

14 October 2016 L. Alan Winters is Professor of Economics at the University of Sussex, and director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. Nick Jacob is an associate tutor and research student in economics – also at the University of Sussex. Few doubt that Brexit poses some immense challenges for the British economy. But for a government that professes to want an economy that ‘works for everyone’, there is possibly one encouraging factor: Brexit seems likely to help re-balance the economy. This note asks what Brexit implies for different parts of the UK and suggests two reasons why regions outside London and the South East could be less severely challenged. […]

By Nick Phipps|2016-10-14T13:22:44+01:0014 October 2016|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|0 Comments

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