White Paper

Not Fit for Service: The Future UK-EU Trading Relationship

14 February 2019 L. Alan Winters CB, Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. Key Points: New research from OECD shows that the European Single Market dramatically lowers the barriers to services trade within the European Economic Area (EEA). Yet, far from prioritising the preservation of such access for UK services trade, the UK political and media debate is focused almost entirely on the much smaller goods sector. […]

By Nick Phipps|2019-02-14T11:27:05+00:0014 February 2019|UK - Non EU|28 Comments

What should we make of the Government’s Brexit estimates?

30 November 2018 L. Alan Winters CB, Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory, Dr Michael Gasiorek, a Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sussex and Peter Holmes, Reader in Economics at the University of Sussex both fellows of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. We welcome the Government’s estimates of the economic consequences of alternative Brexits. They are way overdue. The modelling was very competently done. But the assumptions made tended to favour the Government’s preferred position over other alternatives. On Tuesday, the UK Government released a set of cross-Departmental estimates of the possible economic costs of different Brexit options. They were based on the Government’s own modelling, which uses a technique known as a Computable General Equilibrium modelling and is based on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) consortium’s world model and dataset. The aim is to model (very approximately) the important linkages in an economy over a medium to long-term horizon and to assess the possible impact of changes in trade policy on the economy. (Short-term modelling, over a five year period, was simultaneously released by the Bank of England, but we do not discuss it here). The modelling approach is relatively [...]

By Nick Phipps|2018-11-30T12:37:50+00:0030 November 2018|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|0 Comments

Tilting the playing field? The asymmetry in the UK and EU’s regulatory ‘ask’

27 July 2018 Dr Emily Lydgate is a lecturer in Law at the University of Sussex and a fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. The July UK White Paper on the future relationship with the EU calls for a ‘common rule-book’ for goods. This has sometimes been shorthanded as a proposal for a Single Market for goods (in contrast to services, which departs more dramatically from the status quo).[1] But the scope of regulation the UK proposes should fall within this ‘common rulebook’ is narrower than what would be covered in a Single Market for goods – as the EEA Agreement demonstrates. It’s narrower even than that covered by the EU-Ukraine DCFTA Agreement. So what does the common rule-book cover – and how might this match up with the EU’s regulatory ‘ask’ of the UK? […]

By Nick Phipps|2018-07-27T14:54:22+01:0027 July 2018|UK- EU|1 Comment

Decoding the Facilitated Customs Arrangement

23 July 2018 L. Alan Winters CB is Professor of Economics and Director of the Observatory and Julia Magntorn is Research Officer in Economics at the UKTPO. There is much to digest in the White Paper on The future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union and much to clarify. This blog is devoted entirely to trying to understand the Facilitated Customs Arrangement (FCA) that aims to deliver frictionless trade in goods between the UK and the EU after Brexit. The FCA matters because trade that is ‘as frictionless as possible’ with the EU is now accepted by nearly everyone as desirable and has been characterised by much of business as essential. It also matters in the short term, however, because it is the UK government’s offer to the EU on how to ensure that there is no border between Northern Ireland and the Republic. Without a solution to this latter problem there will be no Withdrawal Agreement and no transition. […]

By Nick Phipps|2018-07-23T11:44:46+01:0023 July 2018|UK - Non EU|6 Comments

What about the remaining 80 percent – services? The ‘Customs Union’ and ‘Unilateral Free Trade’ share the same flaw

05 July 2018 L. Alan Winters CB is Professor of Economics and Director of the Observatory. Two years in and the Cabinet is still squabbling over the UK’s trade relationship with Europe. Among the options most discussed, if not most likely to occur, are The Jersey option – arrangements to provide conditions equivalent to the customs union and the Single Market in goods; Mrs May’s ‘third way’ customs partnership – where the UK collects EU-level tariffs at the border and rebates them only if UK tariffs are lower and firms can prove that the goods did not leave the UK. Until the UK can convince the EU that the technology to do the latter will actually prevent the leakage of lower-taxed goods into the EU, this is effectively the ‘customs union’; and Unilateral free trade – ‘no deal’ followed by the immediate abolition of all UK tariffs. This blog does not assess the relative merits of these arrangements, but notes that they share a common flaw: they ignore 80 percent of the British economy! The more successful 80 percent, in fact – the services sectors, in which the UK has a manifest comparative advantage (see below). The advocates of these [...]

By Nick Phipps|2018-07-06T09:56:40+01:006 July 2018|UK- EU|8 Comments

Groundhog day: Is the Government White Paper on trade and Customs Bill a step forward?

11 October 2017 Dr Michael Gasiorek is Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sussex and Director and Managing Director of InterAnalysis Reading the Government’s White Paper on trade, and the Customs Bill on future customs arrangements, together with Monday’s statement from the Prime Minister seemed like a Groundhog day moment. In other words, this is somewhere we have been before – repeatedly. […]

By Nick Phipps|2017-10-11T10:33:01+01:0011 October 2017|UK- EU|3 Comments

Environmental protection sidelined on the UK’s Brexit agenda

7 February 2017 Dr Emily Lydgate is a lecturer in Law at the University of Sussex and a fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory. While the UK government White Paper on leaving the EU may be light on detail, it does suggest that securing UK environmental protections is near the bottom of its list of priorities, with a scant dedicated paragraph (8.41). Compare this with its complete section on worker’s rights; or compare to the country of Wales, which includes maintaining social and environmental standards as one of six Brexit priorities. […]

By Nick Phipps|2017-02-07T16:08:41+00:007 February 2017|UK - Non EU, UK- EU|0 Comments

Not Fit for Service: The Future UK-EU Trading Relationship

What should we make of the Government’s Brexit estimates?

Tilting the playing field? The asymmetry in the UK and EU’s regulatory ‘ask’

Decoding the Facilitated Customs Arrangement

What about the remaining 80 percent – services? The ‘Customs Union’ and ‘Unilateral Free Trade’ share the same flaw

Groundhog day: Is the Government White Paper on trade and Customs Bill a step forward?

Environmental protection sidelined on the UK’s Brexit agenda

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